Monthly Archives: December 2012

Technical Analysis on USD/INR- 54.75

As you can see in attached USD/INR chart, prices are facing resistance near INR 55 level since from last few sessions.  This resistance comes from Golden Fibonacci ratio 61.8% of last move from all time high of INR 57.25 made on 22 July, 12 to low of INR 51.50 which was made on 5th Oct, 12. On the downside prices will witness immediate support from its 200 Day Simple Moving Average, which comes at INR 54.30.

USD/INR - 54.75

  USD/INR – 54.75

Prices moving gradually lower, so the momentum is also fading, it suggests some shorting opportunity.  At CMP INR 54.75 traders can take short position keeping stop loss above INR 55.10 with an initial target of INR 54.35

(Please read Disclaimer)

ZINC – Still sometime to go short??

As most of the commodities are relaxing after last one and half months rally.  Similarly Zinc 1 month MCX contract is moving flat from last few days.  As on 28 Dec, 2012 Zinc closed at 111.35.  Last few days back it broke from its rising trendline, but as such we have not seen any follow through action barring few choppy sessions, but in last session prices has engulfed last fourteen trading sessions price movement and closed in red, at first instance which indicates that Bears are active now.  Momentum is fading to support the basis.  Based on above observations, I sense that if we see follow through action on Monday, than Zinc has potential to go down further.

ZINC - 111.35

                                                          ZINC – 111.35

I am little skeptical only because of Christmas & New year holiday in US.  Traders can take short position keeping trading stop loss of 113.40, with an initial target o 108.

 

ALUMINIUM – 111.60

As on 28th Dec, 2012 Aluminum 1 Month MCX contract closed at 111.60.  Here I see a minor selling opportunity for risk takers & aggressive traders, risk-averse can excuse at this point in time.  I am saying because I am little late in tapping the opportunity.

Technically, prices has broken out from one and half month rising trendline, and momentum is deteriorating.  MACD is already trading with bearish convergence and RSI is tilted downwards, indicating weakness in prices.

ALUMINIUM

Traders can short on rise or at CMP keeping stop loss of 113.40, if prices breaks below level of 111.10 than prices can move towards 109.50 and lower, and if not than prices can reverse the trend and continue to move higher.  As of now, I see selling opportunity with keeping strict stop loss.

M&M – Selling Opportunity???

Currently Mah&Mah is trading near 930.

Technically, it has broken its rising trendline, and momentum is waning.  M&M witnessed sharp rally from 620 odd levels to recent 975; in last 4 odd months trendline is respected and prices witnessed bounce thereon, this time trendline is broken and it seems that prices will fall further.

Mah&Mah

Mah&Mah

I agree that long term investor will not agree with me, to go short on M&M because on broader level picture is still rosy, and I will totally agree with them.  What I see is trading opportunity to go short on M&M at current levels, keeping stop loss of 955, with 1st target would be around 890 levels.

Today Nifty gave Dark Cloud Cover, indicating weakness in Nifty.

Gail – 354

At current price Gas Authority of India Ltd is trading at 354.

Technically, stock is trading very close to its Major 200 Day Simple Moving Average (DSMA) since from few days.  Momentum oscillator MACD is trading with Bullish Convergence, whereas ADX has reached 19 levels, which indicates that momentum has not picked up from last few days.

GAIL - 354

                                                            GAIL – 354

I see here a buying opportunity, as MACD is about to reach “0” line from below, and I expect momentum to pick up gradually.  Also stock is just trading below 200 DSMA, so as momentum will pick up stock will shoot up.  On flipside, if this hypothesis goes wrong than, it is very much possible that stock will move down quickly, and to support that fact we can see Death Crossover taking place (50 DSMA crossing 200 DSMA from above).

Keeping above things in consideration, I advise to initiate long above 360 level keeping stop below 349, eventually I see prices to test 385+ levels.  Risk-averse traders can wait for close above 360.

(PLEASE READ DISCLAIMER BELOW)

 

Technical Analysis – Be aware of blog marketers.

Dear Friends,

Since from last few weeks, I am coming across few ads on web who is offering their services to teach Technical Analysis, claiming to make you trader and better investor compare to others.  Frankly speaking I really doubt the authenticity of such ads.  I believe some guys have really nothing to do with technical analysis, I am saying some guys not all, and they are offering their service to teach others, they are good marketer not technical analyst.  But, I am very sure, because of their smart marketing tricks many newbie’s get attracted towards this ads, and spend their money, and finally in return they get what is mostly available on internet this days.

My experience is that, it is very easy to learn basic concepts of technical analysis, but extremely difficult to digest and implement it, and far from fact to apply in real market.  To apply your analysis and earn out of it, you don’t only need to be good (I will say, you have to be excellent) in your analysis, but also you should have sound knowledge of money management skills, otherwise, market will crack your legs and you will not realize how it happened.  I am sure many of my colleagues will agree with this fact.

Purpose of writing this article is, if you are keen to learn technical analysis, than consult the person who are actually practicing it from last few years, and take their genuine advise, don’t just jump and get attracted only by looking some professionals on media, (mind you there are few, who looks quite smart and young, but they are dedicated personality and we respect them for their work).   And stay away from marketers; otherwise you are prone to lose interest very quickly.  Stay away from the person who is ready to show you some past history which has already happened, and then they are claiming on their sites, yes, I have done it; simple trick to assess such people is ask them for tomorrow’s outlook and see the result, you or I, don’t have to speak much.

If you are newbie, you are free to contact me on my mail id – way2profits.24@gmail.com.  Don’t worry I will not charge you anything.

Grasim – Sell on Rise.

Grasim Inds at CMP- 3171 looks like a selling opportunity to me.  In below attached chart, it is depicted that prices is already broken support of 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of last up move from low of 2210 to 3505.  Also prices has formed double bottom near ~3150 levels, once this level is broken prices will move to test next Fibonacci support at ~3000 levels.  Momentum oscillator RSI (14) is also showing initial signs of waning out.  Risk involved in taking short is, stock can move higher by taking support near 3150 (forming triple bottom).

Grasim Inds

                                                            Grasim Inds

Risk-averse traders can initiate short below 3150 levels, with strict stop of 3250.   Risk takers can use rise up to 3250 as a selling opportunity with stop loss above 3400, targeting 3000 and lower levels.

(Please read disclaimer attached below)