Monthly Archives: February 2013

way2profits

Update as on 29 Feb’13

Nifty as on 28 Feb’13 – 5692.50

Analysis pays.

When I started writing about Nifty, I had one thing very clear in my mind, I will not tell lie to myself, by that I mean, whatever I feel I will share it here, I will check myself whether I am on a right side or not. Yesterday, when I was writing about Nifty Update, I was in dilemma due to Big Budget Day, as volatility kills you anyway, but I decided whatever I feel I will write upfront, no matter I go wrong or right, but fortunately my expectation was right, market fell sharply.

Anyways, still I sense that market has potential to go down further, but subject to market stays below low of 5670 (spot), I am saying this because trading will only be successful, if you follow market dynamics. Very short term trader can take long positions for small profits, keeping this low as a stop loss, otherwise, if not short than stay away, wait for reversal, which is still not evident.

I think it’s long enough…and thanks for showing trust in me….

way2profits

Update as on 27 Feb’13

Will Nifty continue to upmove? 

Answer is not sure. But Yes, for sure Nifty will continue to surprise you. If you are trader, day trader than you must be having an experience that on budget day what could be volatility, if you cannot digest it, please stay away for day or two. For me, as of now trend remains weak, though we witnessed bounce today, I will turn my attention on long side only if Nifty spot moves and close above 5875, below which I see every rise as a selling opportunity. But don’t forget to keep stop losses.

Free Tips are like Free Vada Pavs

Free tips are like free vada pavsIn Maharashtra Vada Pavs are quite famous and highly consumed by all the people. There are many reasons why Vada Pav is famous- because it is very tasty easily prepared and available and most important is, it is affordable to pockets of every class.

Mostly at the time of Ganesh Visarjan or for that matter any public gathering, Vada Pav is distributed free to gathered crowd. Sometimes it is distributed to advertise some product, or some political party come in picture and advertise themselves. Point I am trying to make is even a small vada pav is distributed free of cost with some purpose, although which is not evident on its face, but it has some effect on mind of public who consumes it. There is nothing Free, you pay for everything, as I said not on face of it.

You must be thinking, why I am talking all this which is irrelevant with my subject. There is some relevance which I want to make here. Tell me frankly when you are eating free stuff, what is your expectation level from that eatery, and what is your expectation level when you enter in to any plush hotel. Obviously, your expectation will be high compare to free stuff.

Point I am trying to make is Free Tips distributed by some sites are like vada pavs, you cannot argue on quality of the stuff, because they are distributing free, if you want to take it you take it, otherwise please don’t come.

Similarly, some so called technical analysis site or blogs are distributing you free stuffs, and attracting you towards their paid services, and I know many people who get trapped by their free vada pavs and enter their hotel and gets nothing but another vada pav, because they cannot produce anything else than vada pav.

I tell you, to give any tip, for that matter even on Nifty I have to work hard for hours and see the price levels, after that deriving strategy based on my expectations, with ideal risk reward ratio and importantly with confidence, is one of the biggest challenge for any technical analyst. And analyst has to do this practice day in day out; now tell me if you are putting so much effort on particular trade than should it be distributed free, there is no time value of money involved in the process??  Even in my site, I only give broad outlook on Nifty, as I am passionate about it, but you will never see I am giving free tips with precise levels, because it requires more time to study, and I am already committed.

Friend, please come out of this phobia that few sites are giving free tips, and I will make money out of it. To test you sites performance, I only suggest you take some article details and just Google it, you will come to know who is the original author of the article. It is really sadden that people are utilizing old books on their name, without giving any credit to the original author.

If you really want to make money out of this market than there is only two ways- one is, either you take service from some professional or secondly you learn by yourself. I always insist to learn by yourself, because you don’t have to depend on others for giving you tips and trading. Yes, process is bit lengthy and road is not smooth, but your goal is to earn and in this commercial world nobody will come at your home to feed you, if you are not going to work.

Sorry Bloggers, but I hate malpractices, be genuine to yourself at least.

way2profits

Close Below 5725, expect 5550

Nifty as on 26 Feb’13 – 5767.95

In last session Nifty opened at 5832 made a high of 5833 and subsequently moved lower, so given both condition for turning bullish were clearly negated and below 5822 shorts were triggered again.

Today’s close is confirmation of bearish undertone. In the Nifty spot chart, if Nifty closes below 5725, than for sure Nifty will test 5550 levels, so also keep watch on Spot markets.

Gradually, momentum oscillators are reaching oversold territory, and also two days are left for rollovers, so undoubtedly there will be high volatility. Play safe.

way2profits

Update as on 25 Feb’13

Nifty as on 25 Feb’13

Even in my last update, I told you Nifty is not ready to move below, but does that mean it will move higher.  Trust me chances are 50-50, so we should better focus on the way where it breaks. In last session Nifty made a spike low of 5822 and closed above even in intraday, I asked to go short below 5835-5830 level only, but unfortunately, price point just triggered and moved higher.

I am getting minor positive clues, subject to prices Nifty should not give weaker close now, and ideally should not move below 5822, which will give us more confidence to turn mildly bullish again.

way2profits

Update as on 22 Feb’13

NIFTY As on 22 Feb’13 – 5856.80

I have clearly mentioned in my last update that I don’t think small traders will earn out of this situation. On last Friday, Nifty moved on a lackluster note, and closed with no significant price direction.

Nifty is ready to move below, looking at price movement I don’t think so. But yes, we should not forget expiry week, generally, at the time of expiry we are seeing high volatility, and expect unexpected from the market. Better trade intraday, with strict stop-losses. Take a short position only below 5835-5830 level. Longs can be taken only after looking at open and direction.

Technical observations – Bank Nifty.

Bank Nifty Spot as on 22 Feb’13 – 12068.95 and Futures – 12107

bank nifty spot-way2profits

Bank Nifty Spot As on 22 Feb’13

bank nifty futtures-way2profits

Bank Nifty Futures Hourly Chart As on 22 Feb’13

As I have depicted in attached chart Bank Nifty is moving in a channel from last Nov’11 and all levels are respected well, barring one initial sharp rise, but then price reentered within a channel. In Sept’12 Bank Nifty witnessed minor whipsaw and to accommodate same I have drawn one another support trend line (marked with dotted line). Looking at current price action it seems that Bank Nifty will move to test Demand Support trendline, wherein it can find support, and we should say that as long as Bank Nifty stays within this channel, its long term trend remains Up. I hope nobody will deny this fact.

I have applied some Fibonacci Projections and Retracements; all are respected well by Bank Nifty.  Applying Fibonacci Retracement from low of 11125 to high of 12961, Golden Ratio of 61.8% comes near 11840 which can provide strong support to prices.

Combining above fact together, support from upward slopping channel line and Golden Ratio price level comes exactly at same place, 11840.  Now extending this fact, I will allow Bank Nifty to wiggle up to 11660. As long as prices are staying above these two levels, I will expect Bank Nifty to bounce from this level, as long term trend remains up, and medium to short term trend is correction.  But below this level, I see trend is changing the direction and initially prices will straight away go to 11000 levels and lower. Momentum is weakening, but still I will not conclude that game is in hands of bears.

Also, I have attached hourly futures chart of Bank Nifty, as you can see prices moved below major averages, and last Fridays action suggest that prices are just consolidating a bit after steep fall, and ready to move further lower.  But, now you all know where to keep an eye for, don’t get panicky and don’t get carried away by messages in you Inbox, if you are objective in trading than you very well know that where to stop and where to run.

I hope my analysis will help you to become an objective. I will appreciate your inputs & suggestions.

 

 

Technical analysis of Gold

Gold as on 22 Feb'13 - USD 1581

Gold as on 22 Feb’13 – USD 1581

In the International market Gold is falling due to variety of reasons, there are much strong fundamental news flowing around, but I would like to draw your attention towards some simple technical observations.

As you can see in above attached chart that, Gold is falling in a channel line from beginning of Oct’12, and in last week only it gave sharp dip below lower channel line, which was indicative of strong selling pressure (I would not discuss any fundamental news attached). Channel has validated its authenticity in past, so if prices moves again in the channel line, than it is one signal where we can go long in Gold, but you can’t expect prices to touch upper channel line this time.

Secondly, momentum oscillator RSI (14) has reached historical low of 20, I have marked with red circle in chart. By this, please don’t expect bounce in prices, as prices have tested oversold territory, No. In past very few time RSI has tested this level in Gold chart, and whenever it has tested this level, prices consolidated and moved slightly lower. Confused, let me clear. From here on, prices may consolidate further and it is possible that after normalizing momentum we might see one more dip in price, but such dip should be utilized as a buying opportunity, by looking at divergence between Price and RSI, I hope I made it very clear. You have to keep little patience here to grab right opportunity.

Few of my friends must be betting that prices will retest its low of USD 1527 made in May’12, but does it make any difference, whether prices test this level or not, major damage is already done.  This time prices made a low of USD 1555.

I would not recommend to place stop loss below this level and take a long position, although it looks good, but I sense that we might see one more dip in price, and that should be utilized, by looking at price pattern at that point in time. Yes, aggressive traders can take minor longs as and when prices move above this channel line, which is coming near USD 1590 (prices should give close above this level and stay).

Lastly, on broad level, I don’t expect Gold to ride further and even testing its Major High near USD 1930.  Gold has shifted its range, expect it to stay consolidate to weak.

I welcome all your feedback and suggestions.

 

Why you want to become a Technical Analyst?

Myself working as technical analyst, but trust me if you would have asked me above question few years back than I was not able to answer you, in fact nobody asked me. I tried and struggled and that is why I am here. But still struggling to become good technical analyst (because perfect word does not fits into learning, it is a never ending process and so the Technical Analysis). So, I am one of the student of technical analysis, and would try to help you with my little knowledge and experience.

learn technical analysis-way2profit

Learn Technical Analysis

By looking at my LinkedIn profile many ask me about vacancy in my company and my experience in the field, many asked me what is the way to become Technical Analyst?. I tried to answer them in my way of style.  But one thing is common, every time I asked to aspirant candidate, why you want to become a Technical Analyst? And genuinely I tell you many gave me such foolish replies and some believed that I am asking them just out of ego, they had a feeling that I am trying to insult them, and accordingly they gave some derogatory replies. But dear friends, if you enter in real world and market, than situation is quite different, it is not as simple as you think of in your dreams.

Let me tell you my personal observation and experience. Even best of technical analyst, who are best and perfect at their work, don’t care to reply to your queries, simply they are money minded. Whether you understood or not, whether you are on track or not, they don’t bother for that. Many are sweet poisons, they talk to you sweetly and finally attract you towards their tuitions or services to mint money from you, and this how it is one surreal fact. I started learning by spending money and not on just by Google it everything, because I strongly believe that Technical Analysis is an Art and not Science.  On internet you can learn some methods but not an Art, for learning an Art you have to have go for some professional classes.  Even there are many frauds, who run their Technical Analysis Shop, you have to safeguard yourself from them also, because if you Google it everything and then there are high chance that you fall in their trap.

So, before entering in to this field, you should ask few questions to yourself.

  • Why you want to join Technical Analysis? (I can’t comment for other industry or profession.)
  • What attracts you towards Technical Analysis?
  • After learning what is your next step?

If you are really serious about Technical Analysis, than try to answer this question and send me your reply, I will try my best to give you best out of you.

You can get in touch with me on my mail way2profits.24(at)gmail(dot)com or Contact Me

Awaiting for your answers, keep asking…

way2profits

Update as on 21 Feb’13

Nifty as on 20th Feb, 2013 – 5850

Yesterday, we trailed our position with cost price, and it got triggered. It seems that Nifty will weaken further, but somehow I believe small traders will not earn much out of it. As I am risk-averse kind of personality I would recommend to buy puts or take only intraday selling opportunity by any pivot system like many a times I like Gann Square of Nine, to play in intraday.

Bank Nifty as on 20th Feb, 2013 – 12064

Bank Nifty is standing on verge of giving breakdown, one or two weak close can drag bank nifty further lower, what you saw today is just a trailer. But always follow systematic approach. Buy puts and stay calm, because weakness is not confirmed yet, according to me.