Monthly Archives: February 2013

way2profits

Update as on 29 Feb’13

Nifty as on 28 Feb’13 – 5692.50

Analysis pays.

When I started writing about Nifty, I had one thing very clear in my mind, I will not tell lie to myself, by that I mean, whatever I feel I will share it here, I will check myself whether I am on a right side or not. Yesterday, when I was writing about Nifty Update, I was in dilemma due to Big Budget Day, as volatility kills you anyway, but I decided whatever I feel I will write upfront, no matter I go wrong or right, but fortunately my expectation was right, market fell sharply.

Anyways, still I sense that market has potential to go down further, but subject to market stays below low of 5670 (spot), I am saying this because trading will only be successful, if you follow market dynamics. Very short term trader can take long positions for small profits, keeping this low as a stop loss, otherwise, if not short than stay away, wait for reversal, which is still not evident.

I think it’s long enough…and thanks for showing trust in me….

way2profits

Update as on 27 Feb’13

Will Nifty continue to upmove? 

Answer is not sure. But Yes, for sure Nifty will continue to surprise you. If you are trader, day trader than you must be having an experience that on budget day what could be volatility, if you cannot digest it, please stay away for day or two. For me, as of now trend remains weak, though we witnessed bounce today, I will turn my attention on long side only if Nifty spot moves and close above 5875, below which I see every rise as a selling opportunity. But don’t forget to keep stop losses.

Free Tips are like Free Vada Pavs

Free tips are like free vada pavsIn Maharashtra Vada Pavs are quite famous and highly consumed by all the people. There are many reasons why Vada Pav is famous- because it is very tasty easily prepared and available and most important is, it is affordable to pockets of every class.

Mostly at the time of Ganesh Visarjan or for that matter any public gathering, Vada Pav is distributed free to gathered crowd. Sometimes it is distributed to advertise some product, or some political party come in picture and advertise themselves. Point I am trying to make is even a small vada pav is distributed free of cost with some purpose, although which is not evident on its face, but it has some effect on mind of public who consumes it. There is nothing Free, you pay for everything, as I said not on face of it.

You must be thinking, why I am talking all this which is irrelevant with my subject. There is some relevance which I want to make here. Tell me frankly when you are eating free stuff, what is your expectation level from that eatery, and what is your expectation level when you enter in to any plush hotel. Obviously, your expectation will be high compare to free stuff.

Point I am trying to make is Free Tips distributed by some sites are like vada pavs, you cannot argue on quality of the stuff, because they are distributing free, if you want to take it you take it, otherwise please don’t come.

Similarly, some so called technical analysis site or blogs are distributing you free stuffs, and attracting you towards their paid services, and I know many people who get trapped by their free vada pavs and enter their hotel and gets nothing but another vada pav, because they cannot produce anything else than vada pav.

I tell you, to give any tip, for that matter even on Nifty I have to work hard for hours and see the price levels, after that deriving strategy based on my expectations, with ideal risk reward ratio and importantly with confidence, is one of the biggest challenge for any technical analyst. And analyst has to do this practice day in day out; now tell me if you are putting so much effort on particular trade than should it be distributed free, there is no time value of money involved in the process??  Even in my site, I only give broad outlook on Nifty, as I am passionate about it, but you will never see I am giving free tips with precise levels, because it requires more time to study, and I am already committed.

Friend, please come out of this phobia that few sites are giving free tips, and I will make money out of it. To test you sites performance, I only suggest you take some article details and just Google it, you will come to know who is the original author of the article. It is really sadden that people are utilizing old books on their name, without giving any credit to the original author.

If you really want to make money out of this market than there is only two ways- one is, either you take service from some professional or secondly you learn by yourself. I always insist to learn by yourself, because you don’t have to depend on others for giving you tips and trading. Yes, process is bit lengthy and road is not smooth, but your goal is to earn and in this commercial world nobody will come at your home to feed you, if you are not going to work.

Sorry Bloggers, but I hate malpractices, be genuine to yourself at least.

way2profits

Close Below 5725, expect 5550

Nifty as on 26 Feb’13 – 5767.95

In last session Nifty opened at 5832 made a high of 5833 and subsequently moved lower, so given both condition for turning bullish were clearly negated and below 5822 shorts were triggered again.

Today’s close is confirmation of bearish undertone. In the Nifty spot chart, if Nifty closes below 5725, than for sure Nifty will test 5550 levels, so also keep watch on Spot markets.

Gradually, momentum oscillators are reaching oversold territory, and also two days are left for rollovers, so undoubtedly there will be high volatility. Play safe.

way2profits

Update as on 25 Feb’13

Nifty as on 25 Feb’13

Even in my last update, I told you Nifty is not ready to move below, but does that mean it will move higher.  Trust me chances are 50-50, so we should better focus on the way where it breaks. In last session Nifty made a spike low of 5822 and closed above even in intraday, I asked to go short below 5835-5830 level only, but unfortunately, price point just triggered and moved higher.

I am getting minor positive clues, subject to prices Nifty should not give weaker close now, and ideally should not move below 5822, which will give us more confidence to turn mildly bullish again.

way2profits

Update as on 22 Feb’13

NIFTY As on 22 Feb’13 – 5856.80

I have clearly mentioned in my last update that I don’t think small traders will earn out of this situation. On last Friday, Nifty moved on a lackluster note, and closed with no significant price direction.

Nifty is ready to move below, looking at price movement I don’t think so. But yes, we should not forget expiry week, generally, at the time of expiry we are seeing high volatility, and expect unexpected from the market. Better trade intraday, with strict stop-losses. Take a short position only below 5835-5830 level. Longs can be taken only after looking at open and direction.

Technical observations – Bank Nifty.

Bank Nifty Spot as on 22 Feb’13 – 12068.95 and Futures – 12107

bank nifty spot-way2profits

Bank Nifty Spot As on 22 Feb’13

bank nifty futtures-way2profits

Bank Nifty Futures Hourly Chart As on 22 Feb’13

As I have depicted in attached chart Bank Nifty is moving in a channel from last Nov’11 and all levels are respected well, barring one initial sharp rise, but then price reentered within a channel. In Sept’12 Bank Nifty witnessed minor whipsaw and to accommodate same I have drawn one another support trend line (marked with dotted line). Looking at current price action it seems that Bank Nifty will move to test Demand Support trendline, wherein it can find support, and we should say that as long as Bank Nifty stays within this channel, its long term trend remains Up. I hope nobody will deny this fact.

I have applied some Fibonacci Projections and Retracements; all are respected well by Bank Nifty.  Applying Fibonacci Retracement from low of 11125 to high of 12961, Golden Ratio of 61.8% comes near 11840 which can provide strong support to prices.

Combining above fact together, support from upward slopping channel line and Golden Ratio price level comes exactly at same place, 11840.  Now extending this fact, I will allow Bank Nifty to wiggle up to 11660. As long as prices are staying above these two levels, I will expect Bank Nifty to bounce from this level, as long term trend remains up, and medium to short term trend is correction.  But below this level, I see trend is changing the direction and initially prices will straight away go to 11000 levels and lower. Momentum is weakening, but still I will not conclude that game is in hands of bears.

Also, I have attached hourly futures chart of Bank Nifty, as you can see prices moved below major averages, and last Fridays action suggest that prices are just consolidating a bit after steep fall, and ready to move further lower.  But, now you all know where to keep an eye for, don’t get panicky and don’t get carried away by messages in you Inbox, if you are objective in trading than you very well know that where to stop and where to run.

I hope my analysis will help you to become an objective. I will appreciate your inputs & suggestions.