Monthly Archives: April 2013

Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 02 May’13

nifty doji -way to profits

Nifty as on 30 Apr’13 – 5930.20                       Bank Nifty as on 29 Apr’13 – 12561.55

Nifty moved as per expectation, opened at 5930, moved above 5940 and posted a high of 5962.30 and panic selling button triggered, made a low of 5867.80 and again moved higher. What a roller coaster ride. Finally Nifty settled at same level where it opened, which gave us a candle of Doji.

Doji at important resistance level is clear signal of fading momentum, but to confirm the fact we need subsequent weak close.

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Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 30 Apr’13

Nifty as on 29 Apr’13 – 5904.10                       Bank Nifty as on 29 Apr’13 – 12609.15

It’s tie between Bulls & Bears.

Both Nifty and Bank Nifty remained in a tight range; neither Buys nor Sell level get even touched. The whole day prices get engulfed by previous day’s range. There was stock specific movement in the market.

Nifty Trading Strategy

As of now, it seems that Nifty is negating the possibility of technical pullback and may resume it up trend again, but for that we need one conclusive positive close. Now, in general everybody is expecting Nifty to move above 5940 than next resistance comes near 5970. But I think, it is risky to take this call, because everybody is keeping a close eye on these levels, and I sense that there is high chance that Nifty move above this level and triggering buy and may witness sudden sell-off from slightly higher level. It is just guessing based on contrarian approach.

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L& T Technical Analysis as on 26 Apr’13 – 1540.85

L&T as on 26 Apr'13 - 1540.85

L&T as on 26 Apr’13 – 1540.85

Larsen & Toubro Ltd is moving consistently moving higher after posting a bottom of 1313 on 9 Apr’13. In last 11 trading session L&T made a gain of more than 17%. Yes, whopping 17% gain. Lastly stand at 1540 reached near a point where multiple resistance pivots will come in play.

But, we should notice some important points here.

  • From beginning of 2012 L&T is making higher highs and higher lows.
  • After posting 1720 in end of Oct’12 prices were moving with weak bias, and lastly on 9 Apr’13 it made a low of 1313. This was loss of around 23% in more than 5 months. And we witnessed gains of 17% in matter of 11 trading sessions only.
  • As it is marked in attached chart, momentum oscillator RSI (14)  gave clear indication with forming Positive Divergence between price and oscillator. And lastly RSI (14) gave a minor Negative Divergence, but still it is very early to comment on it, as this divergence can be easily negated.
  • From last Monday onwards, prices are moving above its 200-day EMA, and with that prices also moved out from Falling Channel line.

From above observation, I sense that still there is scope for L&T to move higher, subject to, prices holds above this 1550 levels where multiple resistance comes as hurdle to prices, and according to my observation, Nifty and Bank Nifty may witness minor pullback in days to come. So it can be threat for L&T too. As long as L&T holds above 1490 level, I would like to maintain my bullish stance on it. Of course risk is involved, but if L&T holds above this level than it has potential to go much higher.

Alternatively, below 1490 prices may enter into consolidating phase and start weakening, but weakness will be confirmed below 1450 levels.

At this point in time, both possibilities have an equal chance to run its course. So we don’t have a choice, but to take risk or keep close eye on it.

Dear readers, please share your view with me, whether you like my articles or don’t like, it add value to your trading? Because I believe in saying what I feel, I never cut, copy and paste any articles, and never try to misguide anyone. Your opinion is important to me, please come ahead and share.


Technical Analysis – Way to quick money.

You have this perception in mind?

If you just type how to make quick money in search engine, you get lots answers. Some are pointing out towards blog marketing, some are lotto kind of stuff, and some comes on Forex trading and Stock market trading. Now many bloggers use this way, they keep on cut, copy and paste write up on financial and technical analysis. Indirectly they are just promoting their blogs, because everyone wants to earn here.

But let me ask you one simple question, do you feel earning is so simple, it is so simple that you just read one book and you know everything about stock market, everything about technical analysis. If your answer is May be, than please you read further.

Dear Friend, it is absolutely not easy to earn out of the Forex Trading and Stock Trading, it is not just side income for everyone. It is hardcore business, and person who is fully involved in this work find it difficult many a times to earn from it, than how you can think to make quick money out of it. If somebody is telling you that, for sure you can make money by taking our calls, and buying our books, than they are fooling around with you, playing with your emotions. Why they can’t make you earn, is different story, as I said earlier they are just marketing their services and if you get trapped, than it is your luck, and their victory. All does not fall in this category, but nowadays there are many bluff masters.

Technical analysis is an art of buying low hanging fruits in the market, try to ride the trend and exit as steam moves out of it. By following simple methods you can for sure make profits out of it, but it doesn’t mean that there is no chance for loss.

Every forex pair or stock moves in one or other direction, and it is not necessary that you can catch every move

Dedication is the key to make money. I don’t know other avenues to make money, but only know about stock market. At Way to Profits we are dedicated to our work and follow high standards of ethics, because we don’t have any quick fix tool, and we don’t try to be millionaire in night. Road map is not straight, but we are committed to what we are doing.

You can share your comments here…

SBIN –State Bank of India Technical Analysis

SBIN as on 26 April’13 – 2287.95

SBIN as on 26 April’13 – 2287.95

On last Wednesday only I become little skeptical about Bank Nifty performance (click here to view Wednesday’s post), but some how due to holiday and global peers were high, it opened Gap up and on next day it gave away some gains. But, integral part Bank Nifty, SBIN was not performing at par. In the last session, SBIN gave one weak close.

If you see attached chart, than SBIN is finding resistance from 61.8% (2340) Fibonacci Retracement of last down leg from high of 2555 to low of 1979.50. Almost from last four trading sessions SBIN is struggling to move above this level, and finally yesterday it gave up.

Look at RSI (14) it also bended down towards 60 level, which indicates loosing steam from the counter.

(To view latest Bank Nifty Trading Strategy click here)

SBIN – Technical Trading Strategy.

From above observation it is evident, weakness is setting in, but still there is a risk involved in going short. It has some important supports in between. If you are risk takers, than follow this strategy, if SBIN opens below 2280 take one short position with stop loss of 2340, and look for next move, whether it holds above 2240 or not. If you think it holds above 2240 than better to exit at whatever small profit you get, but if SBIN moves below 2240 than immediate target comes near 2190.


Nifty Trading Strategy as on 29 Apr’13

Nifty as on 26 Apr’13 – 5871.45

Nifty as on 26 Apr’13 – 5871.45

Bank Nifty as on 26 Apr’13 – 12533.15

Bank Nifty as on 26 Apr’13 – 12533.15

Week ended on a negative note, but week on week basis Nifty and Bank Nifty closed with gains of 88.35 and 244.90 respectively.

As depicted in attached chart, Nifty closed with candle of Harami, which is clear cut indecision amongst market players, and first signal to alert us that existing trend may not continue further. Also there is negative divergence set in between Price and RSI (14), which developed near overbought territory, in Nifty and Bank Nifty both.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Once Nifty moves below 5850 level, traders can initiate short call with stop loss above 5910, initial target would be around 5800 and if prices moves below this level than next target comes around 5735 level. Risk-reward is not much favorable, but it is like this only. Alternatively, long position opens above 5925.

Previously given 5900 CE option closed at 86.30, it is advisable to exit from this position, considering setting weakness in Nifty.

(Previous Strategy – Nifty Trading Strategy as on 26 Apr’13 )

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Once Bank Nifty break Friday’s low of 12470 and crosses 12450, than traders can initiate short position with stop above 12700. Initial target comes near 12000 and next 11800.

I asked risk-averse traders to exit from 12900 CE, and it also hit 30 Rs stop loss from cost price.

P.S.- Medium term bullish trend remains intact, and current technical pullback should be utilized for buying opportunity, as we see some reversal signals on the chart.



Nifty Trading Strategy as on 26 Apr’13

Nifty as on 25 Apr’13 – 5916.30                       Bank Nifty as on 25 Apr’13 – 12726.85

Nifty opened at 5856.10 with minor Gap of 19.2 points, taking cues from Global market. Similar was the situation with Bank Nifty also, opened at 12632.25. in my last article I have clearly mentioned where to take long call (yesterday’s strategy).

Nifty Trading Strategy

As per my suggested strategy, readers are already long with 5900 CE option, which lastly closed at 101.55.  Keeping Nifty movement in consideration this call has not given any significant returns; yes it made a high of 116.90. Traders can hold this call option with financial stop loss of below 80. I expect Nifty to continue moving higher, maybe we witness some dull day, as it generally happens after expiry.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

I asked to buy 12900 CE it opened sharply higher due to gap up opening, but settled lower at 217.50. Even though outlook was right, due to option premium, profits are not earned in here. I think risk averse trader should exit from this option at cost price, and risk takers can hold this position with stop loss of Rs 30 from their cost price.

USD/INR Technical Analysis

USD/INR as on 23 Apr’13 – 54.39

              USD/INR as on 23 Apr’13 – 54.39

Since from beginning of March’13, pair of USD/INR is trading in a very narrow range of 55 to 54 Rupee, just 1 rupee move in lat one and half month. In such type of scenario it is very difficult to trade. In last week prices broke out from its long triangle formation (it does not qualify for native triangle pattern, but for name sake I am using it) and again prices moved back to test the apex of the triangle.

From Feb onwards prices are trading on support of its major 200-day EMA, but there is no follow up action till date, so gradually it loses its significance, as it happened in USD/CAD last year.

RSI (14) is hovering near 50 level, which is indicative of indecision among market players, where price action is bit choppy.

From above observation, I would advise my readers to stay away from this pair, as long as it is moving within this narrow range. We’ll take fresh view once prices move above this range.


Nifty Trading Strategy as on 24 Apr’13

Nifty as on 23 Apr’13 – 5836.90                       Bank Nifty as on 23 Apr’13 – 12543.40

Nifty and Bank Nifty moved as per expectation. Prices remained absolutely range bound, Nifty made a low of 5791 but could not sustain for long and again re-entered in the same range. Similarly Bank Nifty failed to move higher, but interestingly it found support from lower level, which indicates that still some bulls are alive in the counter, but struggling now. We should not forget last two days of expiry.

Nifty Trading Strategy

In the last session stop loss of 5800 was taken away. Now I think it is bit challenging to take trade in this market. Buy 5900 CE next month expiry, once prices moves above 5850 and holds for some time, with trading stop loss of 5800. Or below 5790 Buy 5700 PE next month expiry, with target of 5725.

(Yesterday’s Strategy)

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Go long once Bank Nifty moves above 12650 mark, or Buy CE of 12900 next month expiry. Note, if Bank Nifty gives weak close in today’s session than there is high chance of technical pullback in prices, and Bank Nifty may turn weak for short term, but let’s see.