Monthly Archives: April 2013

Nifty Trading Strategy as on 26 Apr’13

Nifty as on 25 Apr’13 – 5916.30                       Bank Nifty as on 25 Apr’13 – 12726.85

Nifty opened at 5856.10 with minor Gap of 19.2 points, taking cues from Global market. Similar was the situation with Bank Nifty also, opened at 12632.25. in my last article I have clearly mentioned where to take long call (yesterday’s strategy).

Nifty Trading Strategy

As per my suggested strategy, readers are already long with 5900 CE option, which lastly closed at 101.55.  Keeping Nifty movement in consideration this call has not given any significant returns; yes it made a high of 116.90. Traders can hold this call option with financial stop loss of below 80. I expect Nifty to continue moving higher, maybe we witness some dull day, as it generally happens after expiry.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

I asked to buy 12900 CE it opened sharply higher due to gap up opening, but settled lower at 217.50. Even though outlook was right, due to option premium, profits are not earned in here. I think risk averse trader should exit from this option at cost price, and risk takers can hold this position with stop loss of Rs 30 from their cost price.

USD/INR Technical Analysis

USD/INR as on 23 Apr’13 – 54.39

              USD/INR as on 23 Apr’13 – 54.39

Since from beginning of March’13, pair of USD/INR is trading in a very narrow range of 55 to 54 Rupee, just 1 rupee move in lat one and half month. In such type of scenario it is very difficult to trade. In last week prices broke out from its long triangle formation (it does not qualify for native triangle pattern, but for name sake I am using it) and again prices moved back to test the apex of the triangle.

From Feb onwards prices are trading on support of its major 200-day EMA, but there is no follow up action till date, so gradually it loses its significance, as it happened in USD/CAD last year.

RSI (14) is hovering near 50 level, which is indicative of indecision among market players, where price action is bit choppy.

From above observation, I would advise my readers to stay away from this pair, as long as it is moving within this narrow range. We’ll take fresh view once prices move above this range.

 

Nifty Trading Strategy as on 24 Apr’13

Nifty as on 23 Apr’13 – 5836.90                       Bank Nifty as on 23 Apr’13 – 12543.40

Nifty and Bank Nifty moved as per expectation. Prices remained absolutely range bound, Nifty made a low of 5791 but could not sustain for long and again re-entered in the same range. Similarly Bank Nifty failed to move higher, but interestingly it found support from lower level, which indicates that still some bulls are alive in the counter, but struggling now. We should not forget last two days of expiry.

Nifty Trading Strategy

In the last session stop loss of 5800 was taken away. Now I think it is bit challenging to take trade in this market. Buy 5900 CE next month expiry, once prices moves above 5850 and holds for some time, with trading stop loss of 5800. Or below 5790 Buy 5700 PE next month expiry, with target of 5725.

(Yesterday’s Strategy)

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Go long once Bank Nifty moves above 12650 mark, or Buy CE of 12900 next month expiry. Note, if Bank Nifty gives weak close in today’s session than there is high chance of technical pullback in prices, and Bank Nifty may turn weak for short term, but let’s see.

 

Save – Technical Analysis…

You must be thinking, why I am writing this, what is wrong.

I have to write this because, I sense some are directly or indirectly hurting the interest of Technical Analysis and people who are seriously involved in it.

In last few days I had written couple of times about Blog Marketers, who are using Technical Analysis as one of the tool for earning. Unfortunately they don’t know anything about the market, only they know is Nifty and some popular stocks, and poor Janata get trapped in their hands. Height of their ignorance is, this blog marketers keep on asking to their readers, what is you view. B…S… Stop this Crap.

Another category is like this – one fellow Technical Analyst I know, probably he must not be knowing me. I was observing his trade patterns, and analysis. This guy is hardcore intraday player, and probably he must be good into that, I don’t know, because I only receive information about successful trades, even though he has initiated that call one or two months back. Yes, intraday player also gives positional technical call, or I don’t know if his intraday call turns into positional call. No updates about failed trade.

I still remember my learning days when I was making so silly mistakes and I was not getting job, but fortunately that time has gone, and now I believe that I am grown up. Come to my friend, he is practicing from long time and still he has not come out of his early stages. Still he books his profits into 6-7 tranches, yes book 20%, book 10%, and book 15% profit. Please don’t laugh; this is how he books profit. I am really surprised, if you are hardcore technical analyst and seating in the market, do you think that any trader will take trade in this way. I think even in penny stock trader will get out in 2-3 tranches max, and you are talking about front line stock. It sound foolish, but there are this kind of people, and who also has their great ego of being Technical Analyst.

It is my urge to fellow Technical Analyst that please follow some ethics, by your act you are spoiling the name of Technical Analysis, and due to which others think twice to trust us. Fortunately, till date I had not face such situation, but why to wait for…. Save – Technical Analysis.

Reliance Infra – Technical Trading Strategy

reliance infra

Reliance Infra

Reliance Infra as on 22 April 2013 – 382.45

In the last session prices moved sharply higher. I sense that this rally will continue, based on my technical observations.

Trading Strategy –

Ideally, due to yesterday sharp rise we should wait for better entry level in Reliance Infra, near 373-375 level (cash), with this buy trader can put stop loss below 355. Initial target is around 415.

Or alternatively,

Traders can Buy Rel Infra call option of 400 strike price for next month expiry, which is lastly closed at 15.90.  Don’t jump to buy, as premiums are high at this level, enter near 12-13 range, and based on cash level. Stop loss will be 355 only.

Nifty Trading Strategy as on 23 Apr’13

Nifty as on 22 Apr’13 – 5834.40                       Bank Nifty as on 22 Apr’13 – 12576.60

Today, it was Bank Nifty who remained in focus. Bank Nifty witnessed sharp rise compare to Nifty. Although, Nifty closed in positive.

Going in details, momentum in leader of bank nifty-state bank of India (SBIN) seems exhausted, and somewhat similar situation has arisen in other banking stocks too. Please there is no sell signal yet, but on immediate term there is limited upside left, probably prices may take minor pullback and move ahead. (Overall trend remains bullish).

Nifty remained somewhat range bound, but it happens. In such type of market your trading strategy should be strictly followed, infact it should be followed in all market conditions.

Nifty Trading Strategy –

Traders who are already long Nifty can hold position with strict stop loss of 5800 (cash), taking fresh positions can be little riskier at this point in time. If, Nifty witness selling pressure, and moves below 5800 than  Buy Puts of 5700, next month expiry, can be bought with target of around 5730 level.

Technical analysis on Tata Motors.

Tata Motors as on 18 Apr’13 – 282.45

Tata Motors as on 18 Apr’13 – 282.45

As It can be seen in attached chart, Tata motors has made a low of 203 in end of July’12, and since from then making higher tops and higher bottom up till Jan’13 where it made a high of 337.40, notably which is higher than life time high of 320.75 made in Apr’12.  From Jan’13 price corrected exactly 61.8% last up leg from low of 203 to high of 337.40.

From last two weeks after making a low of 251.80 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement) prices are moving higher on gradual note. In the last session we saw spectacular move where prices moved sharply higher.

According to my observation, Tata motors will continue to move higher. Undoubtedly, it has to cross some strong resistances in between, but I believe broader market can retest its highs, in such scenario Tata motors can also move higher.

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