Monthly Archives: May 2013

Nifty Technical Analysis Outlook for 03 June’ 13

Nifty Daily Chart - 5985.95 (-138.10)

Nifty Daily Chart – 5985.95 (-138.10)

Nifty Weekly Chart - 5985.95 (+2.40_

Nifty Weekly Chart – 5985.95 (+2.40)

Market moving in Round Ladder…

Technically speaking, there is no significant movement in Nifty, if we compare week on week basis performance, because in prior week Nifty closed at 5983.55 after making a high of 6229.45, and in the last week Nifty closed at 5985.95, with small gains of 2.40. So, week’s journey ends at a same place where it begin from, like a round ladder, wherein you just keep on moving, without knowing where you begin and where you end.

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Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 31 May’13

Nifty as on 30 May’13– 6124.05 (+19.75)    Bank Nifty as on 30 May’13 – 12805.90 (-47.30)

Finally expiry date passed, and Nifty and Bank Nifty remained range bound. I think this time it will be slightly exceptional, because generally on Expiry Day we witness high volatility. It will be interesting to research Nifty and Bank Nifty behavior and ranges on expiry day. If time permits I will present you one.

Nifty closed at 6124 with marginal gains. But in last three sessions it remained almost in same range. Whereas, Bank Nifty is gradually losing ground, and CNX IT is also in midst of the way. Broadly, there is no clear trend emerges out from this observations, and that is the simplest reason, I am saying that Nifty has a equal probability to turn Bullish or Bearish (It’s just broad understanding)

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Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 30 May’13

Nifty as on 29 May’13– 6104.30 (-6.95)    Bank Nifty as on 29 May’13 – 12853.20 (-96.80)

Nifty is hovering near it previous swing high, and finally settled with marginal loss. Price movement indicates minor support from lower level, but lack of strength in moving higher. Practically its minor double top of situation, as prices moved back after making a high of 6125.05 and previous day’s high is 6127.65.  Momentum stands at a place where any party can drag it further, so we have to see, who comes ahead first.

Bank Nifty, after giving Doji in previous session, remained lower in last session. Not moving higher above 12960 which is previous swing high. Momentum is also fading.

Nifty Trading Strategy Continue reading

Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 29 May’13

Nifty as on 28 May’13– 6111.25 (+28.10)    Bank Nifty as on 28 May’13 – 12950.00 (-11.55)

In the last session, Nifty made a high of 6127.65 and turned back. Didn’t give us a chance to stay long.

Bank Nifty gave a Doji Candle, closed where it opened in the session.

According to my analysis, there is equal chance for Nifty to turn positive or negative, so I will not be surprised wherever it goes. If Nifty turns positive than CNX IT Index can be contributor to it, because Bank Nifty is less optimistic.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Traders can turn attention on long side above 6120-6130 level, with only 20-25 point stop loss. If not, than wait for time being.

In any case, Nifty moves and sustain above 6130 than traders can also Long Call of 6200 of next month expiry, but for which essential condition is close above this level, otherwise it is better to exit from position.

Traders can initiate Long Strangle in Nifty. Continue reading

Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 28 May’13

Nifty as on 27 May’13– 6083.15 (+99.60)    Bank Nifty as on 27 May’13 – 12961.55 (+192.20)

In my last post I had clearly mentioned that we can’t overrule the possibility of bounce, and it took place. I had also mentioned about specific levels and strategy, it worked well. (To view click here)

Similarly, Bank Nifty post I have mentioned step by step price point, where to look for and how to look for, barring one fact of opening, Bank Nifty followed rest four conditions perfectly. (To view click here)

Nifty Trading Strategy

In last session Nifty made a high of 6099.90.  As I said, I will turn my attention on long side once NIFTY moves above 6120 level. So, it is clear if you see nifty moving above 6120 than go along with only 20-25 point stop loss. If not, than wait for time being.

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USD/INR Technical Analysis for 27 May’13

USD/INR as on 24 May’13 – 55.8210

USD/INR as on 24 May’13 – 55.8210

From attached chart of USD/INR, some key observations;

  • In last couple of days USD/INR witnessed good momentum after breaking out from symmetrical triangle formation (not in its purest form).  With that prices also moved above its 200-day EMA. Most traders and analyst were waiting for this breakout, because prior to that prices remained in very narrow range.
  • Now, prices stand near to major swing high of 55.82 made on 26 Nov’12, after which prices remained on subdued note. Breaking out from this level will invite further attention in the pair.
  • Momentum oscillator RSI (14) is also moving higher on daily time frame, it almost reached closed to overbought territory. I think which is quite obvious after such quick rise.  Similarly, on weekly chart RSI reached near to 60-level.

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Bank Nifty Technical Outlook for 27th May, 13

Bank Nifty Weekly Chart

Bank Nifty as on 24 May’13 – 12769.35 (-547.75)

Bank Nifty as on 24 May’13 – 12769.35

Bank Nifty as on 24 May’13 – 12769.35

From above charts of Bank Nifty, few things I would like to high light here.

  • Week begins with extreme Euphoria and Bank Nifty posted a new life time high of 13414.30. But that was happier moment for couple of minutes, immediate after which Bank Nifty started witnessing profit booking and major draw-down start happening. On same day Bank Nifty closed in red.
  • Even in 2010 when Bank Nifty posted new high of 13303.60 on 5 Nov’10, candle body was very small, it means price activity was very limited, and on next day it started giving up away. It is just like cracking another’s record for sake of putting yours.
  • In the weeks last session, prices made a low 12582.50, but from that level, Bank Nifty witnessed support and on closing basis, it closed with gains compare to prior session.
  • If you see in attached chart, still prices are hovering near trend line.
  • Last week, I had shown you Negative Divergence on weekly chart of Bank Nifty, which was honored. This week I have observed potential Hidden Divergence setting up between prices, if prices honor this divergence than we should be looking for at least retest of the highs.

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Nifty Technical Outlook for 27th May, 13

nifty technical analysis 27 may - way2profits

Nifty Daily Chart (Spot)

nifty technical analysis 27 may - way to profits

Nifty weekly Chart

 

Do you see an opportunity to go Long?

I was asking this question to myself. In the last from Monday itself prices start falling, it is only in the last session, where prices took minor halt from falling spree and closed with minor gains for an intraday, but importantly Nifty closed above 5970. After closing I received mail from one of my reader asking me about, do you see an opportunity to go Long from this level. He asked me a question, and suddenly my mind started seeing possibility to go long or not. How emotional we are; Bull by nature always sees any throwback as an opportunity to go long. It is really very difficult to control your emotion in trading, and which is the biggest quality of many successful traders. In fact, I also faced emotional trauma many a times, reasons could be any, but it clearly reflects on my analysis and writing as well.  Controlling your emotions can be learnt with experience only, books and few articles can help and guide you, but it can’t control your emotions.

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Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 24 May’13

Nifty as on 23 May’13– 5967.05 (-127.45)    Bank Nifty as on 23 May’13 – 12636.50 (-371.25)

And finally prices moved substantially lower.

At Way2Profits, we are expecting such move and we have mentioned in our last articles also. When you follow Technical Analysis, you actually don’t need to search for reason, reason will follow the suit. Yesterday, it was Nikkei than global cues, anyways.

Nifty Trading Strategy

We were expecting Nifty to turn lower. In last article, I had mentioned that go short below 6070-6065 with immediate target of 5975, which easily came. Now, what next?

Nifty closed at 5967, in the similar range Nifty has support from previous swing high. Now, it is advisable to go short only below yesterday’s low of 5955, for which initial target comes near 5900. From this level, practical stop loss is far, so trader has to follow financial stop loss.

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Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 23 May’13

Nifty as on 22 May’13– 6094.50 (-19.60)    Bank Nifty as on 22 May’13 – 13008.25 (-58.25)

From last three sessions, Nifty and Bank Nifty gradually moving lower. Common trait which I observed is, for sometime during an intraday, it gives a hope for reversal and just after some optimistic traders gets in long position, it reverses on downside, and give negative close.

Although last three sessions Candlestick patter is not 3 Falling Crows, but appearance is something similar to that. And if we see, onset of such a pattern warns of more moves to come in the same direction.

Momentum is also gradually moving lower, it follows the footsteps of price action.

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