Monthly Archives: May 2013

Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 22 May’13

Nifty as on 21 May’13– 6114.10 (-30.40)    Bank Nifty as on 21 May’13 – 13066.50 (-115)

Nifty after posting a high of 6229.45, moving lower from last two days, missed by margins to retest the highs of 6338.50. As I have mentioned in my article that momentum is not in support of rise, and that is what is happening.

It is little early to comment confidently that winds have turned and now it is time to go short on the market. Keep patience which will always pays you.

After posting a high of 13414.30 on last Monday, Bank Nifty is started sliding down. It seems that Negative Divergence is honored, and based on my observation I think Top is done, but still I prefer to stay silent.

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Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 21 May’13

Nifty as on 20 May’13– 6156.90 (-30.40)        Bank Nifty as on 20 May’13 – 13181.50 (-135.60)

During first half market remained with positive bias, after which started away giving gains. Nifty posted a high of 6229.45, and Bank Nifty 13414.30.

As market witness any dips, bear camp will come ahead and say “Look, its reversal sign” and bull camp will defend move as just a cool-off and retracing the prior move. Whenever prices reaches near crucial top this obvious scenario emerges, and let me tell for any trader it is very tough time, because now they are really confused about taking decision.

In our weekly analysis, we have clearly discussed all pros and cons about the market, and where we stand. By yesterday’s move, you can’t announce that market has formed top and go short (don’t try to become God).

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Nifty Technical Outlook for 20th May, 13

Nifty as on 17 May’13 – 6187.30

Nifty as on 17 May’13 – 6187.30

Nifty as on 17 May’13 – 6187.30 (+80.05)

Nifty as on 17 May’13 – 6187.30 (+80.05)

From above charts of Nifty, few things I would like to high light here.

  • As we already know that Bank Nifty has not only tested but settled above its lifetime high, whereas Nifty still laggard. From Friday’s closing, Nifty has to run from 151.20 points to retest the swing high of 6338.50 posted on 5 Nov’10.  As such it is not very big target for Nifty, but sometimes even you can lose match at last ball, you never know.  Continue reading

Bank Nifty Technical Outlook for 20th May, 13

Yes friends, it is not a just coincidence, when in last weeks article, we mentioned that “Bank Nifty Marching ahead to test all time highs…”

At Way2Profits, we always say what we feel.

Bank Nifty as on 17 May’13 – 13317.10 (+536.95)

Bank Nifty as on 17 May’13 – 13317.10 (+536.95)

From above charts of Bank Nifty, few things I would like to high light here.

  • In the last week Bank Nifty already tested all time highs of 13303.60 and finally settled higher at 13317.10, whereas Nifty is lagging far behind to test these highs

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Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 16 May’13

Nifty as on 15 May’13– 6146.75 (+151.35)     Bank Nifty as on 15 May’13 – 13077.90 (+494.30)

Nifty & Bank Nifty riding on a Black Horse….

What a dramatic reversal, till yesterday it was appearing that Bulls has given up and suddenly, all myths were broken, and Bulls again cheered.

Let me admit, on Saturday I was sure that Nifty has potential to go higher, so the Bank Nifty also, but on Monday market moved exactly opposite and gave big red candle. After looking at such big red candle, genuinely my confidence was broken, but I stick to my technical rules and asked to wait for one weaker close, but on Tuesday market has not given any confirmatory action, so it proved that still we can hope something. And yesterday i.e. Wednesday market moved again sharply higher.

I am happy that my analysis proved me right this time. If you want, you can check my last posts.

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Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 15 May’13

Nifty as on 14 May’13– 5995.40 (+14.95)         Bank Nifty as on 13 May’13 – 12583.60 (+14.75)

Market always tests your patience and if you lose it than for sure you are going to lose you hard earned money also. Even after Monday’s sharp fall I clearly told that we need one more confirmatory close, and market has not given. Does that mean, still there is possibility of upside? Answer is unclear but, if Bears were strong enough than we would have seen continuation of weakness today. Let’s see, what happens today.

Nifty Trading Strategy

If Nifty, moves and sustain below 5975 than probably we might see continuation of downtrend, but on holding above 5975 prices may continue to consolidate between 5975 and 6115.

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Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 14 May’13

Nifty as on 13 May’13– 5980.45 (-126.80)       Bank Nifty as on 13 May’13 – 12568.85 (-211.30)

Nifty witnessed a sharp reversal, after steep rise of last twenty trading sessions, negating upside continuation. Lastly Nifty posted high of 6114.55, made a double top and turns lower.

Nifty Trading Strategy

I had given Nifty option Long Strangle Strategy.

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Nifty Technical Analysis as on 13 May’13

Nifty is very near to test its recent swing high of 6111.80, but little far from testing all time high of 6338.50, as Bank Nifty is very close to it. After such a sharp rise in matter of just 18 trading sessions, most of the traders and analysts (including me) are skeptical whether Nifty will continue to move with such vigor?

According to my analysis, from this point onward technically Nifty has a potential to move towards 6150, and subsequently 6300. I am saying technically, because if tomorrow some Global News flash than we don’t know how market players will react to it.

Momentum oscillator RSI (14) is still in support of rising prices, although intensity may reduce, but still it can walk further.

Bank Nifty & CNX IT has a chance to move further, which in turn may support to Nifty also. Risk from here is, If Nifty does not move higher and turn sideways than gradually momentum will start falling and negating upside possibility.

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Bank Nifty Technical Outlook for 13th May’13

Bank Nifty as on 10 May’13 – 12752.30

Bank Nifty as on 10 May’13 – 12752.30

From above chart of Bank Nifty, few things I would like to high light here.

  • Bank Nifty is moving in a channel from quite a long time, and in recent past it is stuck near a trend line and consolidating here from last twelve trading sessions.
  • If we compare weekly chart, than in last week Bank Nifty made a high of 12783.30 and in last week it made a high of 12783.05. Exactly same high. Only significant difference between prior week’s high and last week’s high is, closing. In the last week Bank Nifty closed near highs, whereas in prior week, it closed near lows.
  • On 29th Jan’13 Bank Nifty made a high of 12960.65 and took a U turn. Now Bank Nifty is very close to this high.
  • As depicted in attached momentum oscillator RSI (14) is showing potential negative divergence, but situation is different on weekly chart, which suggest continuation of trend. This disparity is seemingly reflected in price action, as moving in choppy way from last couple of days.

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Nifty & Bank Nifty Trading Strategy as on 10 May’13

Nifty as on 09 May’13– 6050.15 (-19.15)                Bank Nifty as on 09 May’13 – 12596.30 (-46.75)

I was expecting Nifty to retest high of 6111 and which I am continuously saying from mid Apr’13. Nifty is just few points away from the target, in last session Nifty made a high of 6084.70 and turned sharply lower.

Bank Nifty moving in a consolidation from last couple of days, giving no clear clues, as some banks are performing and some are not.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Still I am waiting for confirmation, it is advisable to initiate position once clear trend emerges.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Let, Bank Nifty to come out from choppy range, or momentum to give first signal, based on that we’ll take a fresh call on Monday. Till that, enjoy weekend.