Monthly Archives: July 2013

Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 01 Aug’13

Nifty as on 31 July’13– 5742.00 (-13.05)    Bank Nifty as on 31 July’13– 10015.75 (-193.80)

Nifty gave sharp reversal from lower levels, which is indicated by last sessions close of long legged candle, closed near highs which is Pin Bar. Its first signal that gradually falling momentum is fading away, and party at other side has a fare chance to exit on rise. On the other hand, Bank Nifty is still appears in pressure, although in it also witnessed some support after moving lower, but already damage was done. Some stronger hands are needed to support Bank Nifty now.

Since from last couple of sessions we have been mentioning about CNX IT, and we were expecting some reversal in it, but fortunately, Index is moving higher and higher on a firm note, although with very small price range, but still there are no immediate signs of reversal. Earlier we mentioned about 8000 levels, it seems that Index will achieve this target now. Lets see.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Today’s open and subsequent 15 minutes action will decide for strategy. Ideally, we are seeing bright chance of going long in Nifty, stop loss would be far, but risk takers can take risk here.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Traders should wait for right signal in Bank Nifty.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 31 July’13

Nifty as on 30 July’13– 5755.05 (-76.60)    Bank Nifty as on 30 July’13– 10209.55 (-121.45)

First of all, due to some unwarranted work pressure, yesterday we couldn’t update our daily view.

In the last session, we saw a sharp fall in Nifty and Bank Nifty was in tandem with that, but although intensity was low. On lower time frame charts there is clear cut divergence in prices, and optimistic traders are betting on it, but somehow it is not unfolding.

We are seeing good support coming in Nifty near 5700 levels, break of this level can entice further selling pressure towards 5550 level. But on immediate front we should not expect this level; probably we might see some relief rally coming in, which should be utilized for going short. Please note, although on immediate front there is no clear indication of reversal, it is just expectations.

CNX IT continued to give small real candles from last couple of sessions, in such scenario taking longs is not at all advisable and can’t go short before getting signals. No option but to watch for.

Nifty Trading Strategy

We think fresh positions should be avoided at this point in time. And if you are holding short position then better to book profit or trail stop losses.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

If Bank Nifty falls from this levels, then immediate support coming at 10125 & 9950 levels. Here also, fresh position should be avoided, and keep trailing stop loss.

So far so Option Alphas is going good, we’ll update trades in weekends.

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for 29 July, 2013

Nifty Daily Chart as on 26 July'13

Nifty Daily Chart as on 26 July’13

Nifty Weekly Chart as on 26 July'13,

Nifty Weekly Chart as on 26 July’13,

High Volatility, Big Gaps and No Trades…

High Volatility, Big Gaps and No Trade, that’s how month of July’13 is ending. (Still, we have 3 sessions to go, but expiry is over). As we mentioned in our daily review, according to analysts view Nifty almost reached 6100 mark, and turned lower. Bank Nifty lost almost 500 odd points during last week, and proved to be one of the major contributors for this pullback, because still CNX IT is making newer highs although with very small range.

Let’s take technical snap shot of Nifty.

  • After four weeks of rally Nifty lost 143 points week on week basis, after making a high of 6093.35. Going ahead on the downside Nifty has crucial support from its 40 Week Moving Average, which is coming near 5800, which also one of the important psychological mark. So breaking below 5800 level will be key challenge for market now, as every trader and analyst must have kept eye on it, and also chance of false breakdown also increases. Also it has trend line support which is still valid, and may support Nifty in days to come near 5750 levels. 

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Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 26 July’13

Nifty as on 25 July’13– 5907.50 (-83.00)    Bank Nifty as on 25 July’13– 10614.00 (-106.15)

Day of expiry is over, and on expiry to expiry basis Nifty closed higher by 225 points, and if we see a range then it roughly 400 points, which is significant move, but with whole lot of whipsaws. At Way2Profits, we had anticipated such kind of move, but our anticipation was smashed in volatility. It was traders who were at mercy.

Now, again nifty settled just above 5900 level, again that crushing range of 5900-5800, where market can do time-pass, or do we see sharp fall from here. We are in support of later; it seems that at this juncture Nifty will not enter into same consolidation phase, probably for some day, but eventually it may move below this level.

CNX IT is giving small real candles from last couple of sessions, and hesitating to move and sustain higher. Although there is no immediate sell signal on it, but should keep watch on it.

Nifty Trading Strategy

From 5900 level we might see some bounce back; in that case Nifty should not move above 5980 level. If you are holding short position then hold with 5980 level. Nifty have support near 5850-5845, below which weakness will extend.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

As expected Bank Nifty slumped further in last session. Now, trail stop loss with 10772 (yesterday’s high). Technically, still we can expect some weakness till ~10500 levels.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 25 July’13

Nifty as on 24 July’13– 5990.50 (-87.30)    Bank Nifty as on 24 July’13– 10720.15 (-519.55)

Finally Bank Nifty gave up, and gives us some decisive action, after keeping us confused for long time. It seems that Bank Nifty has opened window for downside, and eventually which can drag Nifty also. Only supporting factor is CNX IT which is still running on positive note, but it also has a limitations. Since from beginning of this week, we were really not comfortable in going long, we mentioned this quite often in our daily commentary.

Don’t forget that today is expiry.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Nifty gave weak close, but still holding above few supports. On conservative note we need one weaker close in Nifty. Aggressive traders can go short in Nifty with stop loss of 6050, targeting 5900 levels. Between, 5900-5800 there is risk that Nifty again reenters into congestion zone.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

As we were mentioning from last couple of sessions that, below 10970 we are seeing sharp decline in Bank Nifty and it gave. If Bank Nifty sustains below 10850 then we are going to see roughly 10000 levels.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 24 July’13

Nifty as on 23 July’13– 6077.80 (+46.00)    Bank Nifty as on 23 July’13– 11239.70 (+152.75)

Traders Mentality, Analysts perspective.

We think in this market many analysts are cheering up and traders must be crying. As an analyst, we were expecting market to test somewhere around 6100 and Nifty almost tested this level. (If you want you can check our prior reports). So based on this heading of our article should be “Our view was vindicated by market”. But honestly from trader’s point of view or clients point of view, this rally or this view has not given us anything significant to talk about, in fact it has put us on hold, and make us scare to take any position in such a choppy market. We realized this fact, by speaking with one of our analyst friend, who called us and told, see my view was vindicated market tested 6100 level. After finishing his call, we though does it really matter.

At Way2Profits, we may go right, we may go wrong, but we are more focused and keeping traders mentality, with analyst perspective. If you wish to explore market with objectivity, then keep visiting us.

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Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 23 July’13

Nifty as on 22 July’13– 6031.80 (+2.60)    Bank Nifty as on 22 July’13– 11086.95 (+113.05)

It was CNX IT which tested high of 7591 made in 1st week of Jan’11, holding upon the market. Otherwise, Nifty was going nowhere, Bank Nifty witnessed pullback, from lower levels, but still it is under threat.

From here, one probability emerge that CNX IT will continue its upward journey, (although whole move is in corrective phase, but bounce from this levels can’t be overruled), and with that Bank Nifty also take some bounce from lower level, in that case by default Nifty will start climbing higher.

Alternatively, CNX IT turns weak from this level, on account of profit booking, and Bank Nifty is already moving close to key support level, breaking the support will not be a big deal for Bank Nifty. In that case, Nifty will start drifting lower.

From the price action we are not really very optimistic, but still there is no solid cues to turn bearish also.

We request our readers to read our weekly article, where we talked about key pivots, which is still valid, and also caution you, if you are novice trader then better stay away, because big surprise can come in any direction.

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for 22nd July, 2013

Nifty Weekly  Chart

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Market is Supreme…

Whatever we say is less to explain last week’s market action. It was nothing less than a movie, with all colors of thrill, fear, hope and greed. It was really challenging week for any trader, in fact let us put it this way, past all three weeks of July passed on with big surprises. Trader has a big fear to lose money in the market, but greed makes him drive to trade, and even though he/she is right on way, market has a capacity to prove them wrong. Exactly, what happened in last week.

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Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 19 July’13

Nifty as on 18 July’13– 6038.05 (+64.75)    Bank Nifty as on 18 July’13– 11187.70 (+216.10)

Clouds are clear???

It was real relief day for traders, Nifty opened at 5985 and stayed above 5975 levels. We were expecting surprise, surprise of gains. It seems that recovery in banking stocks came to support in last hour of trade, and Nifty and Bank Nifty moved higher. Incidentally, Nifty gave close exactly at 6038, wherein it turned on last Monday.

Now, you have a reason to cheer, but still we advise you to be stay cautious and look for today’s close, don’t forget, its Friday. We are scaring you, but asking you to stay alert, because moving down from 6038 can prove as valid double top. To continue this rally, we need to see close above ~6050 levels, which can take prices to next level of 6100. And you never know, in today’s session only you might see this level.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Today’s open and continuation of trend will decide future course of action. Move above 6050 opens door for 6100/6130. Keep stop loss of 6040 strictly. Even don’t jump to buy options.

Be prepared for worst case scenario, If Nifty opens gap down then- if you are aggressive trader than go short in Nifty with stop loss of 6050, don’t compromise with this level.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

It seems that Bank Nifty has negated the setup of steep fall, at least for time being, you never know what happens next. According to our understanding, as long as Bank Nifty holds 11000 level, we can keep hope or revival. Yes, still Bank Nifty is not totally out of danger. We are expecting close above 10250 level.

If Bank Nifty moves above 11250 levels, then it is time to build minor long position in Bank Nifty, with stop loss of 11000. From past experience, you must have learnt that Bank Nifty is highly volatile, so time & again we reiterate that don’t over leverage your position at least in Bank Nifty. Below, 10900 Bank Nifty opens big space.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Trading Strategy for 18 July’13

Nifty as on 17 July’13– 5973.30 (+18.05)    Bank Nifty as on 17 July’13– 10971.60 (-254.55)

One more choppy session.

Nifty opened with minor gap, moved higher, and then again one more dip towards 5926 almost 65 points dip, and again recovery from that level. What does it signify? That support from lower level exist, or profit booking from higher level. Looking at intensity in fall of Bank Nifty, it is clear that Bank Nifty is was the prime reason for this sharp fall.

Technically speaking, Nifty gave Doji Star candlestick, and which also warns us that, if market gives next weak closing then it is the confirmation of weakness in the Nifty. Market behavior is extremely choppy, it is better to stay out of Nifty and Bank Nifty, as you never know, what other surprise you might get.

Nifty Trading Strategy

We think it is better to exit from Nifty, if holding any position, on any rise, and wait for better signal to reenter the market.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Keep Watch On Bank Nifty, Days to decide for future course of action.

Yesterday, we mentioned that, there is no chance that Bank Nifty can move higher. Bank Nifty settled at support of 10970. Please note, if Bank Nifty has to witness treacherous fall in coming days, then it is right time. Below this level, we see extreme bearishness in Bank Nifty, which can drag Bank Nifty at least 9800 or further lower. And, if takes support here then Nifty also has a chance. We advise don’t jump into trade, give some time and look at the action, what comes next.

Keep your fingers cross.