Monthly Archives: July 2013

Bank Nifty & Nifty Trading Strategy for 17 July’13

Nifty as on 16 July’13– 5955.25 (-75.55)    Bank Nifty as on 16 July’13– 11226.15 (-564.10)

Confession to make

Let us confess that we grossly went wrong, or market proved us wrong. Technically speaking, we had not anticipated this traumatic fall in the market, yes, we were little skeptical about further upside movement, but not even think of in dream that market will turn this way. With all courage, we sincerely apologize for our ignorance.

On Monday, Nifty gave a close of 6030, and we thought Nifty negated Hanging Man, and potential to move further, but overall scenario was not so favorable so we said, “All in all we have some good, some Ok kind of situation, so don’t be aggressive”

Bank Nifty gave us big shock by opening straight 330 points down. Few of our reader and client was long with 11900 CE option, we asked to keep stop loss of 11700 but unfortunately this sharp gap down has not shown this level. Now, we have 11175 to look for below which bank nifty can move towards 10800 levels, which we were anticipating earlier.

Nifty Trading Strategy

If, Nifty moves above 5975 then we have a reason to hold position in Nifty, once Nifty breaks today’s low then first support comes at 5895 and then 5870.  Between 5900 and 5800 Nifty can re-enter consolidation phase.

  • If, Nifty sustains above 5975 then Nifty has equal probability of moving higher (please note, we are saying equal probability not high probability).
  • Between 5900-5800 no traders zone, and below 5800 opportunity to go short.
  • If you are already holding a long position then look for open, and first 15 minutes movement, if Nifty hold above 5950 or near 5950 then hold position with stop loss of 5900. But if, Nifty opens gap down, and trade lower below 5890then it is better to accept loss and get out of the market (but that too, after 9.30-9.45). It may happen, that once you book loss and Nifty start climbing higher, but we can’t trade on hopes.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

We asked for 11700 stop loss, but which didn’t came and if you are holding 11900 CE, then we think, on any rise you should get out of this Call option, as there is no chance now that it can give you some upward surprises. Now, we are expecting downside momentum to continue in coming sessions. If you are aggressive trader than buy 10900 PE option of Bank Nifty on rise towards 11400.

We advise don’t try to take revenge, from market accept your defeat, today it has taken from you, tomorrow you’ll also get chance. Wait.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Trading Strategy for 16 July’13

Nifty as on 15 July’13– 6030.80 (+21.80)    Bank Nifty as on 15 July’13– 11790.25 (+67.45)

Nifty negated last Fridays potential Hanging Man, it is little relaxing, but still we think that, trader should stay cautious, as it not totally out of woods. CNX IT index after terrific Breakout, creating Island reversal kind of pattern, which is the risk to overall market sentiment. Bank Nifty is looking firmer, and finally manages to move above previous swing high of 11750, although closed marginally higher, but it is the good sign. All in all we have some good, some Ok kind of situation, so don’t be aggressive.

Nifty Trading Strategy

If trader is holding long position then hold with a stop loss of 5980. Fresh position can be taken once Nifty moves above 5930 with same stop.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Based on our weekly recommendation, if trader has initiated long position in Bank Nifty, or bought 11900 CE option, than hold the position, with a stop of 11700.

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 15th July, 2013

Nifty Weekly Chart as on 12 July,13

Nifty Weekly Chart as on 12 July,13

Nifty Daily Chart as on 12 July, 13

Nifty Daily Chart as on 12 July, 13

Grinding is over, and Speculation Begins…

After last week’s grinding move, finally Nifty gave breakout. Basically, last two weeks were nerve breaking for all traders. Every week, we learn something from markets and something from our mistakes. To become good trader, you should always try to learn from your mistakes.  According to our understanding, last week’s lesson was Patience. In all the conditions traders has to keep patience and wait for right opportunity and grab it like a panther when it comes.

Let’s take a Technical View on Nifty.

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Weekly Technical View for 15 July onwards – Harish Thakkar

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty sustaining above January 2013 & June 2013 Monthly double top 6011 Nifty can target 1st 6085, 2nd 6169, Resistance 6053 Feb 2013 Monthly top & daily bottoms supports now becomes resistance.

Buy in dips for momentum above 5926 and market to remain in trading range below up to 5869. Possibilities of new lows exists only below 5869.

Bank nifty fails to cross over weekly swing high 11753 as of last week’s views. But, Bank Nifty made weekly reversal bullish bar formations too, which may help for further bullishness. Let the market to prove the levels. Trade what you see on screen without any bias in mind.

 

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Bank Nifty & Nifty Trading Strategy for 12 July’13

Nifty as on 11 July’13– 5935.10 (+118.40)    Bank Nifty as on 11 July’13– 11655.30 (+290.85)

Ohhh Finally…

Yes, finally we see breakout from Pennant Formation, with one more Breakaway Gap, and finally gave relief to Bull Camp. It seems that major contributor today was CNX IT index, which also opened Gap Up. Bank Nifty is trading with positive bias, but it has few more resistances to cross.

Do we need to say our given high probability held true??

Nifty Trading Strategy

Ideally, Long position should be maintained with a stop loss of 5905 on closing basis. Fresh longs can also be created at this level provided, on any pullback, with stop of 5885, but that too, we required closing above 5905, if no then better exit, and as it is Friday. On the upside we are expecting minimum 5975 levels.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

We believe Bank Nifty is laggard this time, as earlier it was show stopper of the show, and going ahead it can be a big threat to Index, but anyways, now it’s time to enjoy the trend. Bank Nifty has immediate resistance from recent swing high of 11753 above which it has potential of more 200 points.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Trading Strategy for 11 July’13

Nifty as on 10 July’13– 5816.70 (-42.30)    Bank Nifty as on 10 July’13– 11364.45 (-78.00)

Close Friendship of two price levels.

Bulls were about to take charge, and unfortunately Bears broke the myths. According to our understanding it was just 30 points game, even we mentioned yesterday also, but see Nifty made a high of 5879.35 not even 5890, and finally took sharp U turn and settled on support of 5816. Market is playing game of catching the ball, what we used to play in our childhood. You and your friend stands opposite to each other, one throws the ball and other catches. Nifty is doing the same thing between 5900 and 5800 like two close friends. Don’t know when they will break the friendship. We had expected market has a fare chance to move on upside, (we gave 70% probability, but above 5890 levels).

Nifty Trading Strategy

As long as Nifty is trading above 5780-5750 level, we should not turn bearish on the market, but once 5750 is taken away on closing basis then we have to give serious thought. For intraday perspective, aggressive traders can go short below 5790 with stop of 5820.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

As we mentioned yesterday, we need to see close above 11500 till that time keep watch on it. In the last session Bank Nifty made a high of 11540 (honestly, we also thought that yes, it has done it), and it screwed up whole idea. Anyways, move below 11350 can take prices further lower towards 11000. Opening will be important.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Trading Strategy for 10 July’13

Nifty as on 09 July’13– 5859.00 (+47.45)    Bank Nifty as on 09 July’13– 11442.45 (+159.15)

Damn frustrating, isn’t it???

From last Tuesday, Nifty is moving clueless, two days of rise, two days of fall, with gaps. Now, according to our analysis Nifty has 30 points to cross (between 5860 to 5890) to turn positive, will it manage to do so? Answer is 70% yes, and 30% no. Bank Nifty is turning up positive, while CNX IT is also moving on a positive note. Only hourly chart is little hesitant to confirm the fact.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Those who have followed our strategy given yesterday, must have made some money. Now, 5860-5890 is risk zone, risk averse traders can ignore this zone, and think of going long above 5900 levels. Don’t jump into trade once you see 5900 levels, it may be possible that Nifty witness only spike towards this level and turn lower again. But if Nifty sustains above this level, than buy on dips should be strategy.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Bank Nifty has given positive clues in the last session. Now we need to see Bank Nifty closing 11500 levels and we have all reasons to turn bullish in the bank nifty. Till that time keep watch on it.

 

Bank Nifty & Nifty Trading Strategy for 09 July’13

Nifty as on 08 July’13– 5811.55 (-56.35)    Bank Nifty as on 04 July’13– 11283.30 (-151.00)

Gaps & Confusions.

One more Gap in last session. In past 6 trading sessions, Nifty remained rang bound, although with high volatility, but on closing basis, from last six sessions, it is moving clueless. Range is of 100 points upside is capped at 5900 and downside 5800. Trading such markets becomes a challenging job for traders, intraday players where anyways out of the market on day ends.

Whether we like or not, momentum is in favor of bear camp, but on closing basis, Nifty gave Hammer kind of candlestick, which means support from lower levels and that too near 5815.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Trading strategy should be clear here, below 5800 enter a short position with stop loss above 5820, with initial target of 5770. If market moves above 5835 than it can move up 5860 to cover the gap.

Net longs can only be open above 5890 levels. To confirm bearish undertone we need close 5760 levels.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Bank Nifty gives small real candles with big spikes indicating high volatility. But, we see Bank Nifty moving further lower, to confirm our view Bank Nifty should stay below 11350. Fresh shorts can be open below 11275 with stop above 11350. We expect Bank Nifty testing 11000 levels.

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 08th July, 2013

Nifty as on 5 July, Weekly Chart

Nifty as on 5 July, Weekly Chart

Nifty Technical Analysis, Daily Chart

Nifty Technical Analysis, Daily Chart

Be Flexible to ride the choppy move…

Sometimes market gives you a chance to earn and builds your confidence, and sometimes its thrash away your gained confidence, and you start doubting yourself, whether I was right or wrong. If you just try to interpret story of market legendary then you will learn that this legends has struggled with their ego, with their emotions, and accepted all the challenges they came across and gradually they succeeded to defeat them. I used word gradually, because its not one day job, its ongoing process for every traders.[stextbox id=”info” direction=”ltr” shadow=”true” float=”true” align=”right”]To Know about Option Alphas Click here[/stextbox]

Last week, market thrown challenge to every trader and many got trapped, many felt disheartened and many started evaluating new strategy for the market. Let us confess, we are not immune to this phenomenon.

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Weekly Technical View for 08 July onwards – Harish Thakkar

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart by Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart by Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Line Chart by Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Line Chart by Harish Thakkar

5931 is weekly swing high key reversal for Nifty. Momentum above 5760 to cross psychological 5900 will remain above Fibo. 5824 & week pivot 5844 as per chart. If cluster of resistance passed & if 5931 is conquered 1st target will be 5996, than 6113 as per charts. Possibilities of new low exists below 61.8%= 5695 & above this consolidations.

Bank Nifty underperforming key reversal = 11753

RIL with monthly double bottom 764 has cluster of daily tops, resistance (Weekly top also) 900.Buy RIL put options 860 when spot price is near 900 will low risk & high return trade.

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