Monthly Archives: July 2013

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for 22nd July, 2013

Nifty Weekly  Chart

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Market is Supreme…

Whatever we say is less to explain last week’s market action. It was nothing less than a movie, with all colors of thrill, fear, hope and greed. It was really challenging week for any trader, in fact let us put it this way, past all three weeks of July passed on with big surprises. Trader has a big fear to lose money in the market, but greed makes him drive to trade, and even though he/she is right on way, market has a capacity to prove them wrong. Exactly, what happened in last week.

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Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 19 July’13

Nifty as on 18 July’13– 6038.05 (+64.75)    Bank Nifty as on 18 July’13– 11187.70 (+216.10)

Clouds are clear???

It was real relief day for traders, Nifty opened at 5985 and stayed above 5975 levels. We were expecting surprise, surprise of gains. It seems that recovery in banking stocks came to support in last hour of trade, and Nifty and Bank Nifty moved higher. Incidentally, Nifty gave close exactly at 6038, wherein it turned on last Monday.

Now, you have a reason to cheer, but still we advise you to be stay cautious and look for today’s close, don’t forget, its Friday. We are scaring you, but asking you to stay alert, because moving down from 6038 can prove as valid double top. To continue this rally, we need to see close above ~6050 levels, which can take prices to next level of 6100. And you never know, in today’s session only you might see this level.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Today’s open and continuation of trend will decide future course of action. Move above 6050 opens door for 6100/6130. Keep stop loss of 6040 strictly. Even don’t jump to buy options.

Be prepared for worst case scenario, If Nifty opens gap down then- if you are aggressive trader than go short in Nifty with stop loss of 6050, don’t compromise with this level.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

It seems that Bank Nifty has negated the setup of steep fall, at least for time being, you never know what happens next. According to our understanding, as long as Bank Nifty holds 11000 level, we can keep hope or revival. Yes, still Bank Nifty is not totally out of danger. We are expecting close above 10250 level.

If Bank Nifty moves above 11250 levels, then it is time to build minor long position in Bank Nifty, with stop loss of 11000. From past experience, you must have learnt that Bank Nifty is highly volatile, so time & again we reiterate that don’t over leverage your position at least in Bank Nifty. Below, 10900 Bank Nifty opens big space.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Trading Strategy for 18 July’13

Nifty as on 17 July’13– 5973.30 (+18.05)    Bank Nifty as on 17 July’13– 10971.60 (-254.55)

One more choppy session.

Nifty opened with minor gap, moved higher, and then again one more dip towards 5926 almost 65 points dip, and again recovery from that level. What does it signify? That support from lower level exist, or profit booking from higher level. Looking at intensity in fall of Bank Nifty, it is clear that Bank Nifty is was the prime reason for this sharp fall.

Technically speaking, Nifty gave Doji Star candlestick, and which also warns us that, if market gives next weak closing then it is the confirmation of weakness in the Nifty. Market behavior is extremely choppy, it is better to stay out of Nifty and Bank Nifty, as you never know, what other surprise you might get.

Nifty Trading Strategy

We think it is better to exit from Nifty, if holding any position, on any rise, and wait for better signal to reenter the market.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Keep Watch On Bank Nifty, Days to decide for future course of action.

Yesterday, we mentioned that, there is no chance that Bank Nifty can move higher. Bank Nifty settled at support of 10970. Please note, if Bank Nifty has to witness treacherous fall in coming days, then it is right time. Below this level, we see extreme bearishness in Bank Nifty, which can drag Bank Nifty at least 9800 or further lower. And, if takes support here then Nifty also has a chance. We advise don’t jump into trade, give some time and look at the action, what comes next.

Keep your fingers cross.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Trading Strategy for 17 July’13

Nifty as on 16 July’13– 5955.25 (-75.55)    Bank Nifty as on 16 July’13– 11226.15 (-564.10)

Confession to make

Let us confess that we grossly went wrong, or market proved us wrong. Technically speaking, we had not anticipated this traumatic fall in the market, yes, we were little skeptical about further upside movement, but not even think of in dream that market will turn this way. With all courage, we sincerely apologize for our ignorance.

On Monday, Nifty gave a close of 6030, and we thought Nifty negated Hanging Man, and potential to move further, but overall scenario was not so favorable so we said, “All in all we have some good, some Ok kind of situation, so don’t be aggressive”

Bank Nifty gave us big shock by opening straight 330 points down. Few of our reader and client was long with 11900 CE option, we asked to keep stop loss of 11700 but unfortunately this sharp gap down has not shown this level. Now, we have 11175 to look for below which bank nifty can move towards 10800 levels, which we were anticipating earlier.

Nifty Trading Strategy

If, Nifty moves above 5975 then we have a reason to hold position in Nifty, once Nifty breaks today’s low then first support comes at 5895 and then 5870.  Between 5900 and 5800 Nifty can re-enter consolidation phase.

  • If, Nifty sustains above 5975 then Nifty has equal probability of moving higher (please note, we are saying equal probability not high probability).
  • Between 5900-5800 no traders zone, and below 5800 opportunity to go short.
  • If you are already holding a long position then look for open, and first 15 minutes movement, if Nifty hold above 5950 or near 5950 then hold position with stop loss of 5900. But if, Nifty opens gap down, and trade lower below 5890then it is better to accept loss and get out of the market (but that too, after 9.30-9.45). It may happen, that once you book loss and Nifty start climbing higher, but we can’t trade on hopes.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

We asked for 11700 stop loss, but which didn’t came and if you are holding 11900 CE, then we think, on any rise you should get out of this Call option, as there is no chance now that it can give you some upward surprises. Now, we are expecting downside momentum to continue in coming sessions. If you are aggressive trader than buy 10900 PE option of Bank Nifty on rise towards 11400.

We advise don’t try to take revenge, from market accept your defeat, today it has taken from you, tomorrow you’ll also get chance. Wait.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Trading Strategy for 16 July’13

Nifty as on 15 July’13– 6030.80 (+21.80)    Bank Nifty as on 15 July’13– 11790.25 (+67.45)

Nifty negated last Fridays potential Hanging Man, it is little relaxing, but still we think that, trader should stay cautious, as it not totally out of woods. CNX IT index after terrific Breakout, creating Island reversal kind of pattern, which is the risk to overall market sentiment. Bank Nifty is looking firmer, and finally manages to move above previous swing high of 11750, although closed marginally higher, but it is the good sign. All in all we have some good, some Ok kind of situation, so don’t be aggressive.

Nifty Trading Strategy

If trader is holding long position then hold with a stop loss of 5980. Fresh position can be taken once Nifty moves above 5930 with same stop.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Based on our weekly recommendation, if trader has initiated long position in Bank Nifty, or bought 11900 CE option, than hold the position, with a stop of 11700.

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 15th July, 2013

Nifty Weekly Chart as on 12 July,13

Nifty Weekly Chart as on 12 July,13

Nifty Daily Chart as on 12 July, 13

Nifty Daily Chart as on 12 July, 13

Grinding is over, and Speculation Begins…

After last week’s grinding move, finally Nifty gave breakout. Basically, last two weeks were nerve breaking for all traders. Every week, we learn something from markets and something from our mistakes. To become good trader, you should always try to learn from your mistakes.  According to our understanding, last week’s lesson was Patience. In all the conditions traders has to keep patience and wait for right opportunity and grab it like a panther when it comes.

Let’s take a Technical View on Nifty.

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Weekly Technical View for 15 July onwards – Harish Thakkar

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty sustaining above January 2013 & June 2013 Monthly double top 6011 Nifty can target 1st 6085, 2nd 6169, Resistance 6053 Feb 2013 Monthly top & daily bottoms supports now becomes resistance.

Buy in dips for momentum above 5926 and market to remain in trading range below up to 5869. Possibilities of new lows exists only below 5869.

Bank nifty fails to cross over weekly swing high 11753 as of last week’s views. But, Bank Nifty made weekly reversal bullish bar formations too, which may help for further bullishness. Let the market to prove the levels. Trade what you see on screen without any bias in mind.


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