Monthly Archives: August 2013

Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 20 Aug’13

Nifty as on 19 Aug’13– 5414.75 (-93.10)    Bank Nifty as on 19 Aug’13– 9145.00 (-305.85)

Selling pressure continued even in last session. Looking at intensity of fall it seems that sellers are ready to sell at whatever price they get, targeting much lower levels. Finally, we have close slightly above 5400 levels. Now, for sure weakness sets in, and every rise should be utilized as selling opportunity, but trader’s needs to be tactical here. Probably on immediate front you might not get quick returns but in longer term, it will be fruitful. If you are long term investor then we think still there is some time to enter into the market.

One important point we like to high light here is that, if we see past history of Bank Nifty, then we have not seen such consistent brutal fall.  There are some moves, but we think this one is special.

Nifty Trading Strategy

On hourly time frame there is Positive Divergence building up, but in such prickly fall relying on this phenomenon is quite risky. We are of the opinion that below 5400 levels, Nifty can show you 5000 levels or probably much deeper correction. We exited from our PE option also.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

In our weekly trading strategy, we asked our readers to go long only above 9450 levels, and Bank Nifty opens at 9425 and that was the high. Since from quite a few weeks, we were expecting 8800 levels, but it will come so fast, we had not expected it.

Keep visiting Way2Profits, for unbiased view on the market.

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 19th Aug, 2013

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Truly Black Friday.

Market witnessed one of the most enthralling day, almost after four years time gap. Yes, you read it rightly, Nifty made such move after long time gap. 2007, 2008 and 2009 were the years, where we witnessed some razor sharp and brutal move, where initially in 2007 market was in pure Bull Euphoria and we still remember it was a time when there was huge participation in the market from even common man also.  After which 2008 was a big lesson for all, and 2009 rally proved to be big surprise for many traders, and rest all years, including current year, proved to be one of the challenging years, like 2000 to 2003. This year’s gives some fruitful lessons to traders and subsequent euphoria works as eraser for this lessons.

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Weekly Technical View for 19 Aug onwards – Harish Thakkar

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty breakdown from consolidation caused Nifty 4-day rally to collapse on Friday 1st hour itself. 1st hour volumes & crack of 123 points can never be a I-D correction of uptrend but nothing else than collapse, explained FNO volume & Hourly price bar charts.
Yet, close above monthly higher swing low, a last bottom 5477, which has monthly swing high top 6229. On weekly & daily downtrend, falling peaks. 5754 is last daily peak above which positional longs will be safer. Till than positional longs, options buying or I-D trading as the opportunities is preferred. Between 5477 to 5754 trade both the direction, where falls are faster than rise.
There are 3 probabilities around 5477

(1) Bottom may lend support & consolidations below 5754.

(2)Breakout failures and opportunities to trade B 2 buy as last trade.

(3)Breakdown of the 5477.Test for the breakdown is break of 3% = 164 points from bottom = 5313(5477-164) & close in breakout area. This will lead to test previous monthly swing lows 4888,4770, 4531.
With making weekly & daily up/dn swings. Use 3 day away rule as stop loss to trade if occurred. Both these points 3% break & 3 day away rules to be referred in Edwards & Magee -Technical Analysis of Stock Trends.

” All things come to those who waits- Steve Nison”

” Stick to your Guns – Edwards & Magee”. 

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ICICI Bank

Last couple of months was really fascinating for Banking Sector stocks, where representative of all major banks Bank Nifty managed to make fresh all time high of 13414.30 in Mid May’13, although new high was marginal, so better we consider it as retesting of the highs of Nov’10.

We are covering on investors and traders darling stock ICICI Bank. Let’s take brief view on ICICI Bank.

ICICIBANK Daily chart

ICICIBANK Daily chart

  • After making all time high of 1455.50 in Jan’08, ICICI Bank has never seen those levels in last five years. Even in 2010 it has made a lower high of 1279, and when Bank Nifty tested old high in May’13 it made again lower high 1238.40. Importantly, with this observation we should note, that after 2008’s panic low ICICI Bank is also making higher lows year on year. Technically, this scenario gives birth to some Triangle like formation in a big trend, which in itself is corrective in nature.

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Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 16 Aug’13

Happy Independence Day

Nifty as on 14 Aug’13– 5742.30 (+43.00)    Bank Nifty as on 14 Aug’13– 10026.40 (+40.75)

In last hour of trading Nifty ran to complete the move, after some confusion during opening hours of trade. But one thing is little out of space this time, Bank Nifty has not performed, in fact CNX IT also witnessed selling pressure while moving higher, but still Nifty managed to close on a positive note. Nifty made a high of 5755 and finally settled at 5742. Still we think Nifty has potential to test 5800 levels. We are little worried by looking at Bank Nifty’s performance, lets see, If Nifty has to perform then Bank Nifty will turn positive tomorrow. We would advise not to take any position at home, book profit and exit.

Nifty Trading Strategy

If trader is holding fresh Long position then they should keep stop loss of 5700 and hold position. If Nifty moves by 20-25 points, in that case trail your stop loss with cost price. For our subscribed clients we are already holding Long CE option and PE option, may be we exit tomorrow.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Bank Nifty is hesitating to move higher. Many stories are rolling in the market, let’s see what plays out. Risk-averse traders should enter long in Bank Nifty on only close above 10250.

Keep visiting Way2Profits, for unbiased view on the market.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 14 Aug’13

Nifty as on 13 Aug’13– 5699.30 (+86.90)    Bank Nifty as on 13 Aug’13– 9985.65 (+274.25)

Finally, one excellent positive close, although close near its make or break level of 5720. We mentioned in our weekly outlook that Nifty has a fare chance of turning from 5720 levels, but looking at intensity of rise, it seems that Nifty may continue its upward journey roughly up to 5850 levels which seems best case scenario. Alternatively, if Nifty finds stiff resistance from or near 5720 levels, then it has to ideally give close below 5630 to bet on short trade.

Bank Nifty witnessed smart recovery after posting a new low of 9582.55, finally settled at 9985. Now its time for Bank Nifty to give some Litmus test, which can decide future course of action? Ideally we’ll be looking for close above 10250, below which risk for further downside remains open.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Our subscribers are already long in options, which is in profit, and earlier given PE option, still we are holding as hedge. All in all, we are near to equilibrium level. Going fresh long can only be advised above 5740 with stop somewhere near 5710 levels.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Risk averse traders should enter long in Bank Nifty only close above 10250.

Keep visiting Way2Profits, for unbiased view on the market.

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 12th Aug, 2013

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart
Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Dark Clouds are gone past or still turbulent times are ahead…

Last week we saw some razor sharp fall in the market, hopes of bulls were smashed and bears must be rejoicing, but party ended quickly.  Fall of last Tuesday was surprise package, and it damaged much. By the end of day, market action has raised question in our Analyst mind, and we could not see any clear clouds, because intensity of fall was sufficient to put us in dismay. Damage continued even next day, but on Thursday again market witnessed recovery, and week is over. Even, in coming week market will work only for four trading sessions. And we believe it will be more challenging week we have to face.

Let’s take technical snap shot of Nifty.

  • One more week, where Nifty lost around 112 points, with weekly range of 234 points. From last three weeks Nifty is falling sharply and totally lost 463.3 points on closing basis. On the weekly chart, few important trend lines are already broken and few are still yet to penetrate.

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Weekly Technical View for 12 Aug onwards – Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Invalidation point of bearishness in Nifty is 5664 and Bank Nifty is 10220
Nifty has broken previous swing low 5566 and trading above last higher swing low 5477ast 3 days High-Low break out will give market directions as explain in charts. Bank Nifty has broken weekly swing low 9814 (5th Sep.’12) and trading above major weekly swing higher low 8995 (18 May,12)Presently consolidation range 10220 to 9660 for 7 working days in 560 points. Breakout upside will turn market bullish and breakdown will lead to vertical fall as it is already trading at 52 Week Low when other major rally supporting stocks showing exhaustion. The rally which was driven by liquidity now drying away. Market is falling on its own weight.
Bullishness or to regain lost strength is possible only if both crossover invalidation.

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Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 08 Aug’13

Nifty as on 07 Aug’13– 5519.10 (-23.15)    Bank Nifty as on 07 Aug’13– 9757.30 (-54.20)

At this point in time we are standing at very crucial juncture. If market breaks from this level then we are seeing some huge round of sell-off. Initially we were of the opinion that chances are very less chance to turn extremely bearish. Still, we think there is equal chance of reversal.

You must be thinking, why we are attaching equal chance. It is not because we don’t know the answer. Based on our analysis, few major factors indicates that market has already turned bearish and we might see some sharp sell-off, and few major observation and analysis, still gives hold signal, means still we should not turn extremely bearish. And we respect both this thought, because both are major. If we synchronize above observations, then we have to give 50-50 chance for both probability.

CNX IT has given indication of turning weak, whereas Bank Nifty may remain range bound for coming few sessions.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Last sessions close is very near to our breakout point of 5000, in fact if broke this level also, and we created short, technically we have to turn short below this level.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 07 Aug’13

Nifty as on 06 Aug’13– 5542.25 (-143.15)    Bank Nifty as on 06 Aug’13– 9703.10 (-391.80)

Unexpectedly Nifty witness sharp falls in last hour of the session. Yes, we had not anticipated such dramatic fall in last session. If we have chance to held anyone liable then it was USD/INR which was culprit of this move. Anyways, while at the time of closing pair appreciated sharply and probably considering this fact, today market may witness some sharp rebound.

As we mentioned even in our last update also that if Nifty breaks below ~5500, then we have to worry a lot. In the last session made a low of 5521.80, very close to it hmmm…

Nifty Trading Strategy

Below 5650-5640 we are little skeptical to turn bullish again, and we’ll try to recover some losses.