Monthly Archives: August 2013

Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 23 Aug’13

Nifty as on 22 Aug’13– 5408.45 (+105.90)    Bank Nifty as on 22 Aug’13– 9268.90 (+4.50)

Gaining trust is challenging task, but losing it needs only one fiasco…

This market is full of appalling news, big fiasco, bad story, big brokers in big trouble and lot more, all are interconnected, only one thing which hurts much is, it is really difficult to gain trust and very easy to break, NSEL fiasco has put everyone in big trouble for everyone directly-indirectly connected with the market. And on the top of that Rupee movement is really killing everyone; it is really doubtful that does anyone has predicted this move, and if yes, how much and how many got benefited out of it. Personally we think, ratio could be much, much smaller.

In the last session, Nifty after opening lower gained significantly and finally settled with good gains above 5400 levels, to support the move fortunately Bank Nifty was somewhat in support, by not falling very sharply, and CNX IT Index recovered after last five sessions fall.

Now, you must be thinking whether this rally may continue or not?

At immediate front, we don’t see any setup which can puncture this rally, but it does not mean that we have to ignore risk involved. Possibly, this rally may continue till 5500+ levels, and eventually turn lower again.

Nifty Trading Strategy

As we mentioned in last article that it is better to take hedge strategy in this market, which can give you smart returns. We maintain our view, and holding some hedge strategy for our subscribed clients.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Bank Nifty is waiting for some breakout, you never know when it comes and at what side. According to us there is high risk-low reward setup, we may excuse bank nifty for time being, and if you like to take bets than stay protected.

Keep visiting Way2Profits, for unbiased view on the market.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 22 Aug’13

Nifty as on 21 Aug’13– 5302.55 (-98.90)    Bank Nifty as on 21 Aug’13– 9264.40 (+45.45)

Whom to Blame, whom to Curse?

By looking at last sessions price action, only one word comes in our mind is Oh My God. What a reverse, it was a day of classic Bull Trap. There are many fundamental factors which are ruling over the market, but practically, we don’t have anyone to blame or curse, as markets will always be like this, and will remain like this.

When market opened everybody thought, including us, that oh no, we lost the opportunity man, and after looking at humongous rise in Bank Nifty we thought it is better to wait and watch, because at such price high we can’t ask our subscribers to enter, and honestly we also had a feeling that, possibly we might miss the rally, but we stopped ourselves. In the morning only we though, we are done for the day, now there is nothing to take away from this, and market stuck in the range, which was obvious, then market moved to cover the gap, which was also obvious, but what happened next was unusual and which was not expected at all. We know, this market has smashed many bulls and many bears in an intraday session only, unfortunate.

Nifty Trading Strategy

At this point in time we don’t see any safe bet, because you never know, how market can open in the morning. Any trading call will involved high risk, so it is better to play with neutral option strategy like Long Strangle or Long Straddle, problem with this strategy is now time is not in your favor, so it may hurt you.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Similarly, in Bank Nifty we advise not to stay with naked position, better to apply hedge.

Keep visiting Way2Profits, for unbiased view on the market.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 21 Aug’13

Nifty as on 20 Aug’13– 5401.45 (-13.10)    Bank Nifty as on 20 Aug’13– 9218.95 (+73.95)

It seems some recovery from lower levels. Bank Nifty made low of 8860 and finally closed in green, which indicates bottom phishing happening at lower levels. It’s not time to rejoice, but yes, if carefully looked at market then you might get some decent trading opportunities. As expected CNX IT index is correcting from higher levels.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Futures is trading at discount to spot which clearly means that still market is anticipating further down move, but if this goes other way then short covering may take this rally further higher. There is some high risk opportunity available with minimal financial risk, grab it.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Our expected level almost reached, and Bank Nifty takes a rebound. It seems that clouds are not so clear, either we should wait for a day or wish to take some risk then jump in, stop losses should be based on your comfort. There is some equal probability trade, if turns long from here then minimum 9600 can be expected.

If we sounds bullish to you, then let us correct, that it may be a mere technical pullback and broadly trend remains down.

Keep visiting Way2Profits, for unbiased view on the market.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 20 Aug’13

Nifty as on 19 Aug’13– 5414.75 (-93.10)    Bank Nifty as on 19 Aug’13– 9145.00 (-305.85)

Selling pressure continued even in last session. Looking at intensity of fall it seems that sellers are ready to sell at whatever price they get, targeting much lower levels. Finally, we have close slightly above 5400 levels. Now, for sure weakness sets in, and every rise should be utilized as selling opportunity, but trader’s needs to be tactical here. Probably on immediate front you might not get quick returns but in longer term, it will be fruitful. If you are long term investor then we think still there is some time to enter into the market.

One important point we like to high light here is that, if we see past history of Bank Nifty, then we have not seen such consistent brutal fall.  There are some moves, but we think this one is special.

Nifty Trading Strategy

On hourly time frame there is Positive Divergence building up, but in such prickly fall relying on this phenomenon is quite risky. We are of the opinion that below 5400 levels, Nifty can show you 5000 levels or probably much deeper correction. We exited from our PE option also.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

In our weekly trading strategy, we asked our readers to go long only above 9450 levels, and Bank Nifty opens at 9425 and that was the high. Since from quite a few weeks, we were expecting 8800 levels, but it will come so fast, we had not expected it.

Keep visiting Way2Profits, for unbiased view on the market.

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 19th Aug, 2013

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Truly Black Friday.

Market witnessed one of the most enthralling day, almost after four years time gap. Yes, you read it rightly, Nifty made such move after long time gap. 2007, 2008 and 2009 were the years, where we witnessed some razor sharp and brutal move, where initially in 2007 market was in pure Bull Euphoria and we still remember it was a time when there was huge participation in the market from even common man also.  After which 2008 was a big lesson for all, and 2009 rally proved to be big surprise for many traders, and rest all years, including current year, proved to be one of the challenging years, like 2000 to 2003. This year’s gives some fruitful lessons to traders and subsequent euphoria works as eraser for this lessons.

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Weekly Technical View for 19 Aug onwards – Harish Thakkar

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty breakdown from consolidation caused Nifty 4-day rally to collapse on Friday 1st hour itself. 1st hour volumes & crack of 123 points can never be a I-D correction of uptrend but nothing else than collapse, explained FNO volume & Hourly price bar charts.
Yet, close above monthly higher swing low, a last bottom 5477, which has monthly swing high top 6229. On weekly & daily downtrend, falling peaks. 5754 is last daily peak above which positional longs will be safer. Till than positional longs, options buying or I-D trading as the opportunities is preferred. Between 5477 to 5754 trade both the direction, where falls are faster than rise.
There are 3 probabilities around 5477

(1) Bottom may lend support & consolidations below 5754.

(2)Breakout failures and opportunities to trade B 2 buy as last trade.

(3)Breakdown of the 5477.Test for the breakdown is break of 3% = 164 points from bottom = 5313(5477-164) & close in breakout area. This will lead to test previous monthly swing lows 4888,4770, 4531.
With making weekly & daily up/dn swings. Use 3 day away rule as stop loss to trade if occurred. Both these points 3% break & 3 day away rules to be referred in Edwards & Magee -Technical Analysis of Stock Trends.

” All things come to those who waits- Steve Nison”

” Stick to your Guns – Edwards & Magee”. 

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ICICI Bank

Last couple of months was really fascinating for Banking Sector stocks, where representative of all major banks Bank Nifty managed to make fresh all time high of 13414.30 in Mid May’13, although new high was marginal, so better we consider it as retesting of the highs of Nov’10.

We are covering on investors and traders darling stock ICICI Bank. Let’s take brief view on ICICI Bank.

ICICIBANK Daily chart

ICICIBANK Daily chart

  • After making all time high of 1455.50 in Jan’08, ICICI Bank has never seen those levels in last five years. Even in 2010 it has made a lower high of 1279, and when Bank Nifty tested old high in May’13 it made again lower high 1238.40. Importantly, with this observation we should note, that after 2008’s panic low ICICI Bank is also making higher lows year on year. Technically, this scenario gives birth to some Triangle like formation in a big trend, which in itself is corrective in nature.

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