Monthly Archives: October 2013

Nifty and Bank Nifty Technical Analysis for 23 Oct’13

Nifty as on 22 Oct’13– 6202.80 (-2.15)    Bank Nifty as on 22 Oct’13– 10809.10 (+11.50)

Technically speaking, there is no major change in prices of the indices. But last two sessions, very small real body creates skepticism amongst market players. Many factors indicates exhaustion of trend, but there is no confirmation yet, which is needed. Unless and until, we see some sharp price action, we cannot conclude that trend is over.

Keep visiting Way2Profits, for unbiased Daily view on the Nifty and Bank Nifty.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Technical Analysis for 22 Oct’13

Nifty as on 21 Oct’13– 6204.95 (+15.60)    Bank Nifty as on 21 Oct’13– 10797.60 (+52.70)

In our weekly update we discuss about price action in past, as market is approaching near to the top.  Today, morning we were browsing through some news, we came across the video of Ace Fund Manager Mr. Samir Arora and his one statement hits to our mind, that “everybody is talking about market is near all time high, but Does this look alike all time High”. Probably exactly what we tried to say in our weekly report.  (Hopefully, one day we can also describe whole story in just one statement – Amin) If anybody wish to hear him then click here

Coming on to today’s market. Nifty and Bank Nifty both remained range bound, although few stocks were outperformed the markets. But, if we see Indices then it is the signal of indecision, now we have to see who comes ahead next day.

Few of our readers asked us, whether you see Inverted Head & Shoulder patter in Nifty? In simple words answer is No. Look at patterns where it is likely to happen. Every structure is not necessarily emerge as particular pattern.  We know that this confusion is created by few brokerage houses and few bloggers.

Nifty Trading Strategy.

Retail participants must be looking for entry point in Nifty, as they have missed out feeling. We would suggest don’t get carried away. If at all you want stay in market, go stock specific now its high time for Nifty. Keep Patience, you’ll also get chance.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Frankly, we are of the opinion that Bank Nifty can test 11200 levels, but not convinced much by looking at breadth of the market and price behavior. Here, also we like to stay apart.

Keep visiting Way2Profits, for unbiased Daily view on the Nifty and Bank Nifty.

Nifty & Bank Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 21st Oct, 2013

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Experience is One thing, you can’t get for nothing – Oscar Wilde

Whenever market reaches to top, Euphoria starts building up. By and large every other participant has feeling of greed which drives them to the market, and if they don’t participate now then when they will come. There are group of market analyst who has feeling of fear that if at all they miss this rally then for sure they will be handed over with Pink Slips, so they start projecting higher levels. (We heard 7000+ levels). Few brokerage houses are ready for their Diwali Picks and Projections and ready to push their outlook to support their deteriorating margins. If we just cross check two months back market sentiment than, everything was messy, the same group of people was talking about 4500 levels and now 7000+.

Lets understand where this market is heading for.

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Market in Past…

Whenever market reaches near tops, euphoria starts building up, everyone will start talking about higher and higher levels. Experience suggests that it’s time to stay alert. This time there is lot of difference between Aug’08 rally, Nov’10 rally and this rally.

In 2008, it was clear up trending market, and still we remember every Tom, Dick & Harry wants to be part of the market, including this author. It was the market, where every Large Cap and Mid Cap and even Small Caps were in news. Analysts were looking better value in every stock. Graduating student want to either be Analyst or Investment Banker. We have seen in Mumbai Local Trains people started talking about Sensex and Nifty (Similar or much better scenario was developed in the Dot Com Bubble 1998-2001)

From the beginning of 2008 till end market was in clear downtrend, tested almost 2250 levels from the highs of 6357.10, which was one of the sharpest fall in the history of Indian Stock Market. Lehman Brothers Collapsed and within a year our Indian Market has lost almost 65% of price gains. Everything was scary at this time.

Then market formed a bottom in next 3 months of 2009 and started fresh up leg, but here nobody has guts to come and accept the challenge.     From 2009 to near the end of 2010 more or less market remained positive and expectation were high. Finally on 5 Nov’10 Nifty posted a high of 6338.50 which was slightly lower than high of 2008; it was again the time of Diwali, brokers were out with their rosy reports of the market and running behind to suggest some multi-beggar stock ideas which can make their clients wealthier. Rest is history and everybody knows that what happens just next day after Diwali.

From End of 2010 to end of 2011 market re-entered into bad phase (as a bull by mentality, we can’t accept the fact of falling market), but this time market formed a higher bottom at 4531 in Dec’11, and started moving higher.

Now, if we analyze price action from the beginning of 2012 than we can notice that, initial two months of 2012 was giving clear sign that market has started fresh impulse leg, but subsequent move is little choppy, where you have to keep cross check on every move of the market.

Up to Jan’13 rally was in tandem (that is what we believe), correction from Feb’13 to mid Apr’13 was fine, but rest all move is little skeptical. Recently in Aug’13 market posted a low of 5118 and recovered from that low in matter of eight weeks (till date) is little surprising.

Little technical here, if we ignore earlier leg and consider move Aug low of 5118 to 18 Oct’13 Friday’s high of 6201, in totality its almost 1082 points move which 21% rise, that too in very short span of time, forcing everyone to relook at things. Because, till date these move is appearing in 3 wave structure. Now considering this thing, if it is fresh Impulse leg than maybe we can expect much higher levels.

But, if we understand and analyze market sentiment, than it is suggesting one obvious thing that don’t get carried away, at Tops we’ll always find Euphoria Building up and that is trap where every Retail participant fall into.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Technical Analysis for 18 Oct’13

Nifty as on 17 Oct’13– 6045.85 (-43.20)    Bank Nifty as on 17 Oct’13– 10336.60 (-52.70)

Talk of the town was CNX IT Index, which plummeted sharply in the day. CNX IT Index 8797.85 lost 322.45 down by more than 3.5% in an intraday session. Even Nifty and Bank Nifty remained weak, but it traded on a choppy note. Ultimately, traders who were focused on IT Index minted money, rest all were waiting for better sell level towards 6200+ as it was an ideal level to go for short.

Although Nifty gave away 43 points, but Bank Nifty was only down by 52 points, and in fact in an intraday session it tried to recover the losses, which indicates that buying is emerging at lower levels.

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Nifty and Bank Nifty Technical Analysis for 17 Oct’13

Nifty as on 15 Oct’13– 6089.05 (-23.65)    Bank Nifty as on 15 Oct’13– 10389.30 (-275.95)

We don’t know whether to prove us right or whether to prove us wrong, market is the best judge and price is supreme, and our readers and subscriber knows that we always try to remain genuine with our work.

When market is looking positive, you don’t bet on going short, if you are going then you must have big pocket, or else you are just speculating. We sincerely, believe that market has a potential to test 6229 levels. Now, see how market works, it opens gap up and remained positive for a while, and then start giving up the gains, in simple words we can call this move as pullback, and suddenly market starts plummeting sharply and still you don’t dare to go short (because, your underlying thought is- market has a potential to go high) and your prove wrong. Similar was the case with Bank Nifty.

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