Monthly Archives: March 2015

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 30 March, 2015

When everybody is sailing in the same boat.

I was just thinking when every market participants will start thinking in the same line, what could be the outcome? Let me put it this way, when Nifty started moving below 8900 in this month, I started contemplating that what could be possible scenarios going ahead, and after some analysis I came with 2 scenarios out of which one was retesting of 8470 levels and at max ideally it should test 8410-8420 levels, and as market started drifting lower everybody started speaking about the same level. (Please, here I am not trying to prove myself better). And what happened in last 2 trading sessions, 8470 is easily taken out by bears, and honestly even I have not anticipated that market will make such low (8269), so quickly. Anyways, that is how the market is.

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Are you scared, your stock prices going down & down?

NIFTY 20 March 2015


Honestly, looking at last week’s price action I was little scared as constantly I was looking at screen and as a diehard bull I was not in a condition to digest such carnage.  It was not biggest fall which I was observing, but it was breakdown of key supports which was part of big concern for me. In the hindsight I was fearful, and then I saw all my charts most of which were showing breakdowns or sign of weakness, momentum was fading away (it also includes Nifty, Bank Nifty, Auto Index), but what I was worrying is about losing short term momentum, but if we talk about slightly longer term perspective, most of this stocks will provide me an opportunity to accumulate at lower levels – levels for which I was waiting for, may be you must also have thought in rising market that ohh gosh…If I would have bought such superb stock at lower levels I would have made so much money. Now when markets are providing us such opportunity we are running out of our mind and getting cautious with this fall. Here I think quote of Sir Warren Buffett suits very perfectly.

Be fearful when others are Greedy and be Greedy when other are fearful.

Now, you must be thinking it is easy to say then preach. I certainly agree with you, even it is difficult task for me, but that is the way to make money, whether you agree or not. Here I am not giving you any tip, but I am sharing you my view.

If we talk level specific, Nifty has good support between 8470 to 8420 levels, so one may look for buying opportunity Index reaches near this levels. Few of the banking stocks are approaching near support zone, may be further 3-5% correction in such stocks can’t be overruled, but if it does than it must be excellent opportunity for long term investors. So I would only say that prepare your wish list of stocks and keep an eye. All the best…

Also I observed one good thing and one bad thing about our market, bad thing was market falling consistently, and what I would say as good thing is that even though FII’s were net buyers, DII’s were also net buyers, but still our market was falling, now you’ll say why I am taking this in positive sense, because we were breaking the common conception that predominantly our markets are driven by FII’s money flow, but this time it is something else may be HNI are selling or Treasuries, that detailed research needs to be done.