Monthly Archives: November 2015

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 30 Nov’15

Don’t be Intolerant in stock market…

Over the time people build preferences and they never realizes that when their preferences turned prejudices, rigidity or stubbornness. Similarly in the stock market people would like to call them as Hardcore Bull or Bear, in hindi we call them as Tejiwale & Mandiwale, like my friends call me hardcore bull. How these prejudices build over a time is the topic to discuss at a length, but over the time I understood that, as a trader or even as a research analyst you should not be biased by any particular view, at all the time you need to remain objective, that does not mean that you should not have a view, but acceptance of change is very much essential, and if we put it in today’s perspective then you should not be Intolerant with changing dynamics of stock market.

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weekly technical view of Nifty 30 Nov'15

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 23 Nov’15

nifty view 23 nov'15

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Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 16 Nov’15

An uninspiring start of Samvat 2072…

Just ahead of Muhurat trading session Govt declared FDI bonanza which gave fillip to market on Muhurat Day, but that was it after opening gap up market remained moreover lackluster, so no opportunity to book some marginal profits and on next day we opened straight gap down. At the face of it for me it was very Uninspiring Start of Samvat 2072, but rather being superstitious I would prefer to stay objective, and look for another opportunity, that is what my experience suggest me. So lets analyze and see how to position our self ahead of expiry.

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samvat 2072 nifty weekly report

The week passed by…

In the last week Nifty formed candle like Inverted Hammer or it can also be treated as Doji, nevertheless it indicates that selling pressure at higher levels and all eyes would be on weekly low (7730.90).

Once again technical structure of NF is stands at crucial juncture and if selling pressure may intensify then it may drop towards Sept low 7540.

I prefer to look at 14-period RSI and on weekly as well daily time it is clearly indicating to me that we are in a bear trap of the market, however considering oversold scenario of the market possibility of minor pullbacks can’t be overruled.

CNXPHARMA now NIFTY PHARMA reached to an extreme oversold condition and after 2-3% further correction, I am expecting some sharp rebound in Index that is what price history suggest, so keep tight watch on this index and try to grab opportunity here.

NIFTYAUTO witnessed profit booking in last session, as AUTO stocks were performing better in compare to others. Chart structure indicates that after 1-3% decline it may resume to move higher again, however let’s see what damage it can handle.

One chart strikes to me is NIFTYIT which is likely finish its round of correction in the coming sessions, as like other charts after blip of 1-2%, I expect some smart rebound here, keep fingers cross.

Lastly, if you see NIFTYBANK it is still holds above its last Monday’s low, whereas NF already breached below this level, exhibiting divergence between NF & BNF. If this continues then chances of recovery in NF becomes much stronger.

Derivative Insights

In the month of Nov till date FII’s remained consistent seller to the tune of 3743 crore, whereas DII’s are net buyer of 2378 crore.

Week on week basis FII’s have reduced NF long position of 28k contracts whereas added 38589 short contracts. If we see in stocks, they added just 5449 contracts and stock short contracts are 21282. (In compare to previous weeks reading position are almost same, just the quantum has changed)

On the options front they maintain 1:2 ratio where 25309 option contracts are long, while 51411 puts are long.  And opposite to it 52746 calls are short and almost NIL puts are shorted. Above observation clearly indicates that till date their bias is clearly negative and for every one long contract they are creating 2 short contracts or may be hedging parallel.

8200 7,339,650 5,832,900 7700
8000 5,740,200 3,986,550 7800

On looking at NF options data maximum call interest lies at 8200 & 8000 strike price to the tune of 74 & 57 lac contracts. While maximum open interest in puts are at 7700 strike to the tune of 58 lac contracts and followed by 7800 strike 40 lac contracts.

Last week’s review – Technically, we are standing close to crucial support of 7850, so I expect any pullback towards these levels should be utilized for buying, don’t be so aggressive, but stay on long side, and on the upside 8120 will remain next resistance to watch for.  So, my expectations were thrashed by market –lesson I learnt is be objective, don’t get carried away by psychological expectations.

With fresh thought, current technical structure suggest me that we are standing near the junction, if bulls will fail to defend support area than bears will kick them in their next trajectory which opens big space for them. Level specific, NF has a support near 7670-7700 levels, if fails to hold above this level, then I think possibility of retesting of 7540 or moving further below can’t be ruled out. So until NF holds below 7950 levels I assumed to remain short in market, and start opening short below 7700 mark. Alternatively for Bulls to retain the confidence we need to close above 7950.

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 09 Nov’15

Happy Diwali and Welcome Samvat 2072…

Diwali and New Year has always been a very special occasion for stock market and every market participants, and even for me. I would admit that today I am in market just because I saw Diwali of few punters in my society and got attracted towards market, (someday I’ll write about all those days). Samvat 2071 is going to end at similar juncture wherein from journey started-near to 8000 level, so statistically there is no gain or no loss year on year basis, but that is not the case, journey remained roller coaster, Nifty made a high of 9119.20 on 04th march’15 and made a low of 7539.50 on 08th Sept’15 and now we stand at 7950 levels. Let’s analyze what should be our strategy for near future.

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diwali report samvat 2072