Category Archives: Educational Articles

Various articles on practical trading and financial markets, which can help our readers to gain from experiences.

What to do now???

Hello Friends,

Today I got a chance to speak to one of the subscriber of Gann Square of Nine Method. It seems in last couple of days he lost his hard earned money and obviously now he was in search of some black box system which should work in all market scenario. He asked me few questions and i thought this questions are not only his questions, but in general all the participants must be thinking in the same way. Hence this article.

  • Friends, first look at this chart Nifty. I had nothing but drawn a simple trendline from the lows of Jan 2016 and adjoined to next two important swing lows, out of which one trendline is already broken and another is about to test in days to come, or God Knows if it will tested just today itself. Point of support based on this trendline is somewhere near 10180.
  • Secondly, on chart 14-pd RSI is plotted on down, where one may clearly see that RSI has broken the previous swing low, whereas price has not which is 9951. So in technical terms it is called as Hidden Bullish Divergence. Which indicates that after tremendous selling pressure possibility of pullback can’t be overruled.
  • Next one may see INDIA VIX which has made a high of 20.48 and lastly settled at 19.73.  On 8th Feb,18 it made a high of 24.035 wherein from it cooled-off. Importantly if we see in past, even after VIX cools-off from the highs, prices may continue to decline initially and after few days it starts recovering. So, it is better to assume that INDIA VIX may initially rise and eventually it starts cooling-off but that does not indicate bottom reversal.
  • And lastly one more important observation, If we see Average Range of Nifty, it has shot up dramatically, and it is not only Index but Average Range of most of the stocks has tripled, which is not obvious.

Now, how to interpret this data and how to poise ourself in the market. First and foremost you have to decide, why you are in the market,

  • For Excitement and Thrill
  • For taking Revenge
  • For making Money

If your answer is 1 or 2 then you are most welcome and enjoy the ride, but if your answer is 3 than my sincere suggestion is to wait for a while, no matter how good you are or bad your system is. Mostly none of the system discounts such a high volatility with such a wide Average Range. Take your prudent judgement and save your money from big time loss. If you are Investor than start accumulating selected stocks in a staggered manner. And if you are Trader than Just Relax, wait for VIX to come in its territory and wait for Average Range to switch to normal course.

Friends, i can give you couple of other points of analysis, but don’t want to confuse you much. I try to keep it simple. If you have any query feel free to ask me. I will answer you for sure.

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 14 Sept’15

Please end the quandary

Last many weeks passed in a doldrums and jitters, wherein one day we were worried about China Yuan devaluation, and next day about war between South and North Korea, and now whether Fed will hike the rate or not? So finally in this week, we’ll come to know the status of Fed rate and to some extent decision of RBI will also be dependent on that.  Hope to end this quandary by this week.

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weekly nifty outlook 14 sept'15

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 15 June’15

Stock market is a reflection of an economy, and price is a reflection of state of healfishermanth of economy.  As Martin Pring noted in his book, all price movements have one thing in common: They are reflection of the trend in the hopes, fears, knowledge, optimism, and greed of market participants. The week passed by was nightmare for hardcore bulls and rejoice for bears, however I believe that ratio of bulls should be higher in compare to Smart Bears. In hindsight, move of Thursday was a trap for small fish (read as retail participants) by Fisherman (read as FII’s and few large institutions). Once again last week set an example for us, and we should learn from that, and restrict ourselves from committing same mistakes again and again.

nifty technical weekly view 15 july way 2profits, nifty positive divergence

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Nifty & Bank Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 03rd Feb, 2014

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

 

Winners make a habit of manufacturing their own positive expectations in advance of the event. – Brian Tracy

Well, we have to agree with above quote. It is said that if you don’t believe in yourself than nobody is here to believe in you, so first you have to believe in You. Time and again we are saying and it is proved that nobody can stay right all the time in the market, even best of best traders are ready to accept their defeat and that is why they are best and winners, but even to prove wrong you have to have view and confidence in your understanding or for that matter in your trade. Yes, there is very thin line between faith, confidence and overconfidence.

Last week, Bears have confidence in their working and they proved it, but fruits of success were available only for that trader who has smartly taken position on Friday only, because there was choice available on Monday, as market opened sharply lower.

To understand and trade wisely let’s take fresh look on the market and see whether we can take something out of it or not?

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Nifty & Bank Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 18th Nov, 2013

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. 

Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth. – Marcus Aurelius 

As always there will be difference of opinion between two generations, and that difference gives birth to revolution and new practices. Market trading was very different than what it is now. We all know the mantra which we used to hear from our earlier generation, that “Buy It & Forget It”, and trust us we come to in close contacts with few gentleman’s who made lot of money and still enjoying their fruits in their retirement. But, now everything has become dynamic, investment has transformed into trading, FII’s buying and selling pattern has changed in last couple of years. Earlier, they use to look at yearly returns, than they started looking at Monthly, than Weekly and now they are concerned about intraday volatility and momentum, still there are few who follow old practice, so we’ll not claim that everybody is in same foot. Point we are trying to make is, all long term forecast (some are making predictions as well, don’t know how), are good to prove the smartness and understanding of individual analyst, but is that good for your trading. Answer lies to you.

At Way2Profits, we try to follow one simple practice, to stay with trend (if it’s there), sometimes we fail and sometimes we manage to catch it in right manner, fortunately, last week we were at right side, hopefully next week. To read, our understanding, you just have to Click here to register, and our report will get deliver in your mail box by Sunday evening. And yes, we neither make any forecast, nor we have magic stick for making predictions.

Nifty & Bank Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 14th Oct, 2013

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Tell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn – Benjamin Franklin.

Every market participants, one or another day will agree with excellent quote of Benjamin Franklin. If I tell you, I am sure you are going to forget, if I teach, you will struggle to remember, but if you are involved with me than for sure you are going to learn and remember. As a trader or an analyst, you always have to accept supremacy of markets, the day when you start becoming stubborn with your view or start loving your trade, you begin journey which will drive you nowhere.

In last couple of weeks, what we observed is, even if you are right in your view, market is not allowing you to make profits out of it. Because, one day market moves in one direction and you build a position, immediately next day you find yourself in a dilemma, whether to hold this position or take a stop and get out of the market. Finally, as a small trader you cut your losses and get out, and next day you find that market open gap up and game is over. Your loss making position goes in profit, and you can’t dare to take fresh position seeing market already very high. This is tough time and we believe that it will not last, so cheer up.

Let’s take snap shot of last week, and understand what could be the next move of the market.

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Buy on Dips, Sell on Rallies

I know many readers, who understand the meaning of Buy on Dips, but they don’t know how exactly that means. Generally, any analyst after doing its research comes to a point where he/she had a view that broadly market is going to rise or going fall, based on that it gives a suggestion to their clients.

When we say Buy on Dips means, analyst has a Bullish View and stock has potential go much higher from current levels. In that case, whenever market falls or correct, that particular downfall should be utilized to accumulate the stock which were talked about. For example, Nifty is trading near 5800 levels and it has a fare chance to move higher in coming future, but there could be a chance that in nearest future Nifty may correct towards 5700-5600 levels. Now, in above scenario if you are not pure swing trader than you should utilize this correction to accumulate Nifty and Hold for higher levels to achieve. May be Nifty might test 6000+ levels again, in that case Buy on Dips gives you superior returns.

buy on dips, sell on rise by way2profits

 

When we say Sell on Rallies means, analyst has a Bearish View and stock has potential go lower from current levels. In that case, wherever market rises to some extent, that particular rise should be utilized to Sell or Book Profit in that Stock or Index. For example, Nifty is trading near 5800 levels and it has a fare chance to correct or witness downfall in coming future, but there could be a chance that in nearest future Nifty may move higher towards 5900-6000 levels and analyst believes that now there is limited upside and downside potential is higher. Now, in that case, trader can utilize any rise as a selling opportunity in Nifty and hold for the lower target

Above concept should be utilized with proper game plan, because if you don’t know where the turnaround point is, than there is a chance that you may go bust. So, it is always advisable that don’t hear and trust any media news, unless and until you closely follow them. Because, it is their duty to give you advice based on current market scenario and development, and which may be good for day, but once turnaround points come, they are not going to come again on News channel and going to give you advise that please exit from your position. So rely, only where you get consistent view, like we give at Way2Profits.

 

Siemens Ltd – Technical Analysis

Siemens Ltd Weekly Chart

Siemens Ltd Weekly Chart

Siemens Ltd Daily Chart

Siemens Ltd Daily Chart

This week, we are covering Siemens Ltd in our Stock”O”Week series.

Since from Aug 2011 Siemens Ltd is correcting from the highs of 950 and consistently making lower high, lower low, which signifies underlying weakness in the stock. As this stock was darling few years back to major investor community and now it lost the charm.

Technically speaking, stock is moving under major corrective C wave, but as such internals are not very obvious where we can firmly say that where and when correction can complete and fresh impulse wave will start. So it is better go by some simple tools.

Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 01 Aug’13

Nifty as on 31 July’13– 5742.00 (-13.05)    Bank Nifty as on 31 July’13– 10015.75 (-193.80)

Nifty gave sharp reversal from lower levels, which is indicated by last sessions close of long legged candle, closed near highs which is Pin Bar. Its first signal that gradually falling momentum is fading away, and party at other side has a fare chance to exit on rise. On the other hand, Bank Nifty is still appears in pressure, although in it also witnessed some support after moving lower, but already damage was done. Some stronger hands are needed to support Bank Nifty now.

Since from last couple of sessions we have been mentioning about CNX IT, and we were expecting some reversal in it, but fortunately, Index is moving higher and higher on a firm note, although with very small price range, but still there are no immediate signs of reversal. Earlier we mentioned about 8000 levels, it seems that Index will achieve this target now. Lets see.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Today’s open and subsequent 15 minutes action will decide for strategy. Ideally, we are seeing bright chance of going long in Nifty, stop loss would be far, but risk takers can take risk here.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Traders should wait for right signal in Bank Nifty.

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for 22nd July, 2013

Nifty Weekly  Chart

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Market is Supreme…

Whatever we say is less to explain last week’s market action. It was nothing less than a movie, with all colors of thrill, fear, hope and greed. It was really challenging week for any trader, in fact let us put it this way, past all three weeks of July passed on with big surprises. Trader has a big fear to lose money in the market, but greed makes him drive to trade, and even though he/she is right on way, market has a capacity to prove them wrong. Exactly, what happened in last week.

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