Category Archives: Stock Alphas

Technical Analysis of particular stock for medium to long term perspective, useful of Investors and Traders.

Siemens Ltd – Technical Analysis

Siemens Ltd Weekly Chart

Siemens Ltd Weekly Chart

Siemens Ltd Daily Chart

Siemens Ltd Daily Chart

This week, we are covering Siemens Ltd in our Stock”O”Week series.

Since from Aug 2011 Siemens Ltd is correcting from the highs of 950 and consistently making lower high, lower low, which signifies underlying weakness in the stock. As this stock was darling few years back to major investor community and now it lost the charm.

Technically speaking, stock is moving under major corrective C wave, but as such internals are not very obvious where we can firmly say that where and when correction can complete and fresh impulse wave will start. So it is better go by some simple tools.

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ICICI Bank

Last couple of months was really fascinating for Banking Sector stocks, where representative of all major banks Bank Nifty managed to make fresh all time high of 13414.30 in Mid May’13, although new high was marginal, so better we consider it as retesting of the highs of Nov’10.

We are covering on investors and traders darling stock ICICI Bank. Let’s take brief view on ICICI Bank.

ICICIBANK Daily chart

ICICIBANK Daily chart

  • After making all time high of 1455.50 in Jan’08, ICICI Bank has never seen those levels in last five years. Even in 2010 it has made a lower high of 1279, and when Bank Nifty tested old high in May’13 it made again lower high 1238.40. Importantly, with this observation we should note, that after 2008’s panic low ICICI Bank is also making higher lows year on year. Technically, this scenario gives birth to some Triangle like formation in a big trend, which in itself is corrective in nature.

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Grasim Inds – Technical Analysis

Grasim Inds as on 07 May'13  – 3018.35

Grasim Inds as on 07 May’13 – 3018.35

In our last article on Grasim Inds, on 24 Dec’12, I have asked my reader to Sell on Rise when it was trading at 3171. After which Grasim made a low of 2666.75 and took a rebound in last few days.

Technically, Grasim Inds was trading in a falling channel from mid Oct’12 and recently prices broke out from this channel. Prices are trading below its its 200-day EMA which is placed near 3065. In last session prices moved and settled above its 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of last down leg. Momentum oscillator RSI (14) is giving positive indication.

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Tata Steel – Opportunity for Investors to look in

Tata steel as on 3 May’13 – 311.20

Tata steel as on 3 May’13 – 311.20

Tata Steel was consistently falling from the beginning of 2013, till last few days. As depicted in attached chart, prices were falling in a channel and recently it broke out from this channel line, and attempting to move higher. Current pullback is supported by momentum also.

According to my understanding, price correction in Tata Steel can be over; it is very much possible that it may extend in time.

Stock Trading Strategy

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L& T Technical Analysis as on 26 Apr’13 – 1540.85

L&T as on 26 Apr'13 - 1540.85

L&T as on 26 Apr’13 – 1540.85

Larsen & Toubro Ltd is moving consistently moving higher after posting a bottom of 1313 on 9 Apr’13. In last 11 trading session L&T made a gain of more than 17%. Yes, whopping 17% gain. Lastly stand at 1540 reached near a point where multiple resistance pivots will come in play.

But, we should notice some important points here.

  • From beginning of 2012 L&T is making higher highs and higher lows.
  • After posting 1720 in end of Oct’12 prices were moving with weak bias, and lastly on 9 Apr’13 it made a low of 1313. This was loss of around 23% in more than 5 months. And we witnessed gains of 17% in matter of 11 trading sessions only.
  • As it is marked in attached chart, momentum oscillator RSI (14)  gave clear indication with forming Positive Divergence between price and oscillator. And lastly RSI (14) gave a minor Negative Divergence, but still it is very early to comment on it, as this divergence can be easily negated.
  • From last Monday onwards, prices are moving above its 200-day EMA, and with that prices also moved out from Falling Channel line.

From above observation, I sense that still there is scope for L&T to move higher, subject to, prices holds above this 1550 levels where multiple resistance comes as hurdle to prices, and according to my observation, Nifty and Bank Nifty may witness minor pullback in days to come. So it can be threat for L&T too. As long as L&T holds above 1490 level, I would like to maintain my bullish stance on it. Of course risk is involved, but if L&T holds above this level than it has potential to go much higher.

Alternatively, below 1490 prices may enter into consolidating phase and start weakening, but weakness will be confirmed below 1450 levels.

At this point in time, both possibilities have an equal chance to run its course. So we don’t have a choice, but to take risk or keep close eye on it.

Dear readers, please share your view with me, whether you like my articles or don’t like, it add value to your trading? Because I believe in saying what I feel, I never cut, copy and paste any articles, and never try to misguide anyone. Your opinion is important to me, please come ahead and share.

 

SBIN –State Bank of India Technical Analysis

SBIN as on 26 April’13 – 2287.95

SBIN as on 26 April’13 – 2287.95

On last Wednesday only I become little skeptical about Bank Nifty performance (click here to view Wednesday’s post), but some how due to holiday and global peers were high, it opened Gap up and on next day it gave away some gains. But, integral part Bank Nifty, SBIN was not performing at par. In the last session, SBIN gave one weak close.

If you see attached chart, than SBIN is finding resistance from 61.8% (2340) Fibonacci Retracement of last down leg from high of 2555 to low of 1979.50. Almost from last four trading sessions SBIN is struggling to move above this level, and finally yesterday it gave up.

Look at RSI (14) it also bended down towards 60 level, which indicates loosing steam from the counter.

(To view latest Bank Nifty Trading Strategy click here)

SBIN – Technical Trading Strategy.

From above observation it is evident, weakness is setting in, but still there is a risk involved in going short. It has some important supports in between. If you are risk takers, than follow this strategy, if SBIN opens below 2280 take one short position with stop loss of 2340, and look for next move, whether it holds above 2240 or not. If you think it holds above 2240 than better to exit at whatever small profit you get, but if SBIN moves below 2240 than immediate target comes near 2190.

 

Technical analysis on Tata Motors.

Tata Motors as on 18 Apr’13 – 282.45

Tata Motors as on 18 Apr’13 – 282.45

As It can be seen in attached chart, Tata motors has made a low of 203 in end of July’12, and since from then making higher tops and higher bottom up till Jan’13 where it made a high of 337.40, notably which is higher than life time high of 320.75 made in Apr’12.  From Jan’13 price corrected exactly 61.8% last up leg from low of 203 to high of 337.40.

From last two weeks after making a low of 251.80 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement) prices are moving higher on gradual note. In the last session we saw spectacular move where prices moved sharply higher.

According to my observation, Tata motors will continue to move higher. Undoubtedly, it has to cross some strong resistances in between, but I believe broader market can retest its highs, in such scenario Tata motors can also move higher.

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