Category Archives: Harish Thakkar

Weekly Technical View for 26 Aug onwards – Harish Thakkar

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Weekly Price & Time correction of RSI oversold @25.21 starts to correct after 5 consecutive lower high, lower low. Normal bounce in Uptrend is usually 600 to 700 points. We are in Down trend and as such at least 400 to 500 points bounce can be expected. Previously EOW 17th May 2013 in Uptrend low was 5477 with RSI 30.48 made 5 week HH & HL formation made high of 6199 = 722 points.
Weekly bullish hammer close will show its power to cross 5505 which is High of previous swing 5477 low breaking bar’s failure attempt to win over. Target will be 5660.If we see 5755 the down trend ” V ” shape bottom will show its power to hold. But as Monthly swing break confirmed by closed in breakout area, this daily & weekly 1 or 2 week higher close rally will surrender to Monthly swing down.
Bank Nifty is still looks struggling to hold the bottom. Trade only on 3 day swing high is safe.3 Day swing high is 9766
As per my opinion Monday, Nifty & Bank Nifty must cross over at least hourly macd ” O ” to add strength.

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Weekly Technical View for 19 Aug onwards – Harish Thakkar

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty breakdown from consolidation caused Nifty 4-day rally to collapse on Friday 1st hour itself. 1st hour volumes & crack of 123 points can never be a I-D correction of uptrend but nothing else than collapse, explained FNO volume & Hourly price bar charts.
Yet, close above monthly higher swing low, a last bottom 5477, which has monthly swing high top 6229. On weekly & daily downtrend, falling peaks. 5754 is last daily peak above which positional longs will be safer. Till than positional longs, options buying or I-D trading as the opportunities is preferred. Between 5477 to 5754 trade both the direction, where falls are faster than rise.
There are 3 probabilities around 5477

(1) Bottom may lend support & consolidations below 5754.

(2)Breakout failures and opportunities to trade B 2 buy as last trade.

(3)Breakdown of the 5477.Test for the breakdown is break of 3% = 164 points from bottom = 5313(5477-164) & close in breakout area. This will lead to test previous monthly swing lows 4888,4770, 4531.
With making weekly & daily up/dn swings. Use 3 day away rule as stop loss to trade if occurred. Both these points 3% break & 3 day away rules to be referred in Edwards & Magee -Technical Analysis of Stock Trends.

” All things come to those who waits- Steve Nison”

” Stick to your Guns – Edwards & Magee”. 

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Weekly Technical View for 12 Aug onwards – Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Invalidation point of bearishness in Nifty is 5664 and Bank Nifty is 10220
Nifty has broken previous swing low 5566 and trading above last higher swing low 5477ast 3 days High-Low break out will give market directions as explain in charts. Bank Nifty has broken weekly swing low 9814 (5th Sep.’12) and trading above major weekly swing higher low 8995 (18 May,12)Presently consolidation range 10220 to 9660 for 7 working days in 560 points. Breakout upside will turn market bullish and breakdown will lead to vertical fall as it is already trading at 52 Week Low when other major rally supporting stocks showing exhaustion. The rally which was driven by liquidity now drying away. Market is falling on its own weight.
Bullishness or to regain lost strength is possible only if both crossover invalidation.

To understand above concept in detail, don’t forget to click here.

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Weekly Technical View for 5 Aug onwards – Harish Thakkar

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty 

If Nifty fails to cross over 3 Day Swing High 5809, then fall will be extended to test previous bottom 5566 below which last bottom is 5477.

Nifty falling from 200 DEMA made ” V “shape bounce and made failure attempt to close above it and made new low and closed just above new low. As many as 13 stocks made 52 Week low out of which Bank Nifty A/c 50% ie.6 out of 12 stocks made 52 Week low.

Bank Nifty

Previous one year price behavior shows bounce for corrective & full fledge rise from RSI 14, O/S 25 to 31.So, likely to bounce expectation. If anybody has short position it should be covered and should not short here. But I do not see any technical reason to buy. If exit from O/S and closed > 5DMA EOD will be valid buy signal.

 

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Weekly Technical View for 15 July onwards – Harish Thakkar

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty sustaining above January 2013 & June 2013 Monthly double top 6011 Nifty can target 1st 6085, 2nd 6169, Resistance 6053 Feb 2013 Monthly top & daily bottoms supports now becomes resistance.

Buy in dips for momentum above 5926 and market to remain in trading range below up to 5869. Possibilities of new lows exists only below 5869.

Bank nifty fails to cross over weekly swing high 11753 as of last week’s views. But, Bank Nifty made weekly reversal bullish bar formations too, which may help for further bullishness. Let the market to prove the levels. Trade what you see on screen without any bias in mind.

 

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Weekly Technical View for 08 July onwards – Harish Thakkar

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart by Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart by Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Line Chart by Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Line Chart by Harish Thakkar

5931 is weekly swing high key reversal for Nifty. Momentum above 5760 to cross psychological 5900 will remain above Fibo. 5824 & week pivot 5844 as per chart. If cluster of resistance passed & if 5931 is conquered 1st target will be 5996, than 6113 as per charts. Possibilities of new low exists below 61.8%= 5695 & above this consolidations.

Bank Nifty underperforming key reversal = 11753

RIL with monthly double bottom 764 has cluster of daily tops, resistance (Weekly top also) 900.Buy RIL put options 860 when spot price is near 900 will low risk & high return trade.

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Weekly Technical View for 01 July onwards – Harish Thakkar

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

nifty weekly technical view - by harish thakkar

Market made weekly Bar Reversal with gap up above previous day high, holding the gap with almost all gains. Market sets trending up move with buy on dips up to 5715 for targets of 5913 and 5990.

To trade is step by step process, once Nifty sustains above 50 DEMA- 5847 will add strength. And previous swing high of 5863 will be immediate resistance and 5870-5900 is cluster of resistance. Nifty has to give litmus test near weekly swing high of 5931, which will validate the strength of the market.

Use 5DEMA or 34 HSMA for trailing Stop Loss and 3 Hourly swing low for Intraday fresh positions.

Markets are in overbought condition on hourly time frame, so it is better to wait to cool down for fresh positions.

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Weekly Technical View for 24 June onwards – Harish Thakkar

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

 

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty Weekly Chart

 

Monthly Lower High (LH), Lower Low (LL) (June developing). Weekly continuation of LH,LL bullish divergence subject to price confirmation for trading entries on 5 Day close EMA.

As per Daily charts RSI-9 and on the Weekly charts RSI-14 shows market in deep oversold condition, from here on we can expect technical bounce to test 200 DEMA = 5765, which is nothing but the corrective rally, for one sharper fall.

As per MY understanding “FII’s sitting on piles of profits, need not to cover shorts on technical bounce. Trading long will be risky, so I would advise to prefer short on rally. To sell on rallies at 5765-5800 or buying PE options at that time will have better risk rewards ratios.

Wisdom Thoughts

Bottom fishing turns trader into fish at bottom of the net.

Catching a falling knife if it bleeds, you are lucky it had not cut your fingers.

(Dear readers, you can also express your view in Way2Profits, you just have to send us request, and your current research articles with supporting charts)

 

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Weekly Technical View for 17 June onwards

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

nifty weekly analaysis - Harish ThakkarCorrective rise of the fall started with gap opening, making day low 5739 above previous day high 5729 on last Friday. Holding 50% gain of last rise = 5751 (H 5819 & L 5683) market can reach to 5878 on the basis of behavior of previous fall.

Fall from 6229 to 5937 = 292. Than rise from 5937 to 6132 = 195.Now if we add this 195 to last low 5683 = 5878.This is below June open 6011 & 61.2% Fibo.6020.

From above observation 2 probabilities emerge.

One, if market cross over and hold 6011 then possibility opens for New High in 2013.

Secondly, if Nifty holds below 6011 means making Monthly swing down which can extend to 5878-292=5586 Usually weak market do not correct more than Fibo 38%=5891.

Trading strategy buys in dip, SLO 5751 if market dips due to RBI policy on Monday or wait the event to pass. I use simple thumb rule of trading long above 5DEMA and short below it keeping all other things secondary at back of mind with larger picture without bias.

Weekly Technical View for 10 June onwards

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

nifty daily chart

nifty weekly chart 7062013

Nifty completed week with Weekly Bearish outside Bar. Previous week to that was Inside Bar and week completed making lower high lower lows on weekly swings as shown in charts.

Daily charts shows that all tradable EMAs are in sell mode with 14 RSI < 50 and also MACD is in Sell mode, if slips to below “0” can produce bigger fall.

All points to Sell on rallies. My views sell on rallies, for aggressive trader is Golden Ratios sell @ 5939 with stop loss above @ 5959 and conservative and risk-averse traders can sell at 5980 to 5995 with stop loss of 6010. Nifty trading above weekly top 6061 can only favors Longs.

Monday’s 1st hour will decide to stay short (if holding).

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