Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 30 March, 2015

When everybody is sailing in the same boat.

I was just thinking when every market participants will start thinking in the same line, what could be the outcome? Let me put it this way, when Nifty started moving below 8900 in this month, I started contemplating that what could be possible scenarios going ahead, and after some analysis I came with 2 scenarios out of which one was retesting of 8470 levels and at max ideally it should test 8410-8420 levels, and as market started drifting lower everybody started speaking about the same level. (Please, here I am not trying to prove myself better). And what happened in last 2 trading sessions, 8470 is easily taken out by bears, and honestly even I have not anticipated that market will make such low (8269), so quickly. Anyways, that is how the market is.

So essentially I am trying to make point is, when any particular figure or level is hyped in media or much talked about, that figure either never comes or may be easily taken out. I don’t have facts & figure to prove this, but what I am saying is with my little experience. I don’t know whether you agree or not?.

Nifty Technials for 30 March onwards by Way To Profits

 

Now coming on to the reality check. Technically, Nifty is heading south, and hopes of recovery are very less, but I would like to maintain my stance that it is opportune time to Accumulate quality stocks.

Going ahead what could be the possible scenarios. 1- Nifty has made a swing low of 8269 and part of correction is over, and gradually Nifty may see some upward momentum. 2- If some price correction is impending Nifty can move lower towards 8180-8100 levels where 200 days moving average is placed and which is not tested once in last more than a year. In that still damage of 230-250 points could be possible. And lastly third scenario, where Nifty breach below 8100 levels and opens window for further 450-500 points correction. Now, out of these three possible scenarios, obviously my least preferred scenario is three, and I don’t think currently we are due for such sharp correction. If markets drifts lower towards retesting its 200-DEMA, then I think it also opens window for moving further lower (as I mentioned above, most spoken levels are taken away swiftly). So my best case scenario would be Nifty should hold above 8180-8200 and I would like to bet upon it. I would appreciate If anyone from you share their hindsight with us.

Please note, above all writing is for educational purpose only, and I am not recommending anyone to take any position or trade based on any of the view mentioned above.

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