One tour in currency space.

Generally, I get less chance to look at currency charts, but still sometimes I look at it. Let’s begin with Dollar Index, than EUR/USD and lastly USD/INR.

Dollar Index as on 15 Mar’13 – 82.13

On 14 Mar’13 Dollar Index made a high of 83.16 and finally ended 29 days (trading days) long rally (It seems that rally is ended). From 1st Feb’13 onward prices made a bottom of 78.19 and moving on continuing basis, in between easily taken off resistance of its major 200 DEMA. I am saying that this rally is ended because of last two days price action, which has given two big red candles confirming underlying weakness in prices, with that RSI (14) has also confirmed the fact by moving towards 50-line. And also as depicted in attached we can clearly see rising trend line breakout.

dollar index-way2profits

Dollar Index as on 15 Mar’13 – 82.13

It seems that prices moved in impulsive structure, so I expect prices to retrace prior move by at least 38.2% or higher, so initial target comes near 81.52 and next 81.00 from current level. Traders can keep stop loss of 82.61.

EUR/USD as on 15 Mar’13 – 1.3074

Similarly EUR/USD shows reversal signal after falling spree from high of 1.3703 by making a bottom of 1.2911 on 14 Mar’13.  FIBER stands close to its major 200-DEMA, and also prices broke out from falling trendline as depicted in attached chart.


EUR/USD as on 15 Mar’13 – 1.3074

Traders can take long position above 1.3105 with stop loss of 1.3016. I expect initially prices to test at least 1.3225 and next 1.3300. Subsequently we can easily trail the stop loss and play the ride.


USD/INR as on 15 Mar’13 – 54.02

I am starting with weekly chart. As it is clearly visible Head & Shoulder pattern. Few weeks ago one of my friend has drawn out attention on this pattern, with his analysis, but at that point in time I was not convinced to turn extremely bearish on Dollar, but as pattern is progressing I am becoming little skeptical.


USDINR Weekly Chart

Few weeks ago prices gave false breakdown and immediately reversed; but after that again prices struggling to go higher and that is the sign that is alerting me.


USDINR Daily Chart

From daily chart it is evident that prices moving in congestion, not giving clear clues. But I sense that prices will move lower, and will test support of major trendline as depicted in attached chart, and after that we have to take fresh call on USD/INR price movement.






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