Tag Archives: India VIX

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 18 May’15

Silence before the Storm…

After a long time market entered into a phase where neither Bulls are making money nor Bears, only we have to assume that some smart people are exceptional (but I am even skeptical about them also). The way in which market was behaving during last week, with killing volatility it became real difficult to take any call and stand by with it. But nevertheless, we’ll try out best to find out or at least how to position our self in such a indecisive market.

In the last week I asked myself why anyone should subscribe to my idea or newsletter, and only answer I can give is If you want unbiased and neutral and thoroughly researched outlook, then you can certainly subscribe to our idea, because I am not concerned whether you are generating brokerage for me or not, or I am not concerned whether you like my straight forward opinion or not, so if you feel comfortable subscribe here to get our weekly newsletter in your mailbox, and if you are already subscribed then chill…

nifty between the two lines way2profits

Nifty Daily Chart

Broadly market is very much expecting rate cut and it can’t be overruled that market participants may have already discounted that possible positive trigger, but if on 2nd June RBI disappoints and does not announce any rate cut then the reaction may turn out to be disastrous. Let’s keep fingers cross.

Current BJP government has completed 1 year, and then now experts have started scaling the performance on their Ruler and now market has divided clearly in three groups, One group which is not at all satisfied with the Government in control (number may be small), second group who are satisfied with the performance (again number may be small), and lastly third group who believes that (or may be an optimistic believers) still some time needs to be given, as things take time to come on ground, here proportionately number could be large, again it is my own gestimate, you may differ with me, and I fall in between second and third group category. Anyways, essential point is whether efforts taken by Government is sufficient enough or not, and I kept answer upon you, and you may feel free to reply.

Technically, couple of things which needs to be noted, first extreme volatility as India VIX reached to 21.90 levels and in last session slightly cooled-off. Nifty formed Rising Three kind of Candlestick formation pattern (not in its purest form), which is a Bearish continuation pattern, but pattern get negated subsequently. Nifty remained engulfed by prior week’s price move, i.e. neither high of 8355 is not tested nor is low of 7997.15 taken out. So on weekly closing basis Nifty formed Doji candle and remained engulfed, reflects indecisive tone of the market.

Now Nifty is holding above its 200-DEMA which is currently placed at 8190 level, but holding below its 50-DEMA (8438), here bears of the markets are expecting some Death Cross over in days to come.

Similar to Nifty, Bank Nifty also remained engulfed by prior week’s move, but classic difference between two is, Bank Nifty closed marginally higher, and especially some buying interest was witnessed in PSU banks, which helped Bank Nifty to show some strength, and also it is on the verge of giving breakout from falling trendline. With this CNX Auto Index has also shown some strength in last few sessions.

Last week, we discussed about Rupee, which gave a breakout from consolidation, but USDINR moved marginally higher posted a high of 64.37 and cooled-off in last three sessions, settled at 63.43, which rescued the overall sentiment of the market.

Now based on above observations, how you should position yourself. Once again I reiterate that I don’t see any fundamental shift in the economy, and in fact if we see economic data which is improving on a gradual note. Technically, we are placed at an inflexion point where taking decision is extremely difficult. Nifty is placed between the two lines as depicted in attached chart; breakout in the direction will drive the further trend, so I would be keeping close eye on 8355 on the higher side and 8090 on the downside. Micro management of your position should be based your risk profile and your understanding of market, if you ask me I am buyer at current level and even somewhere upto 8140-8120 levels, keeping stop loss below 8090 (ideally stop loss should be kept on closing basis, but with this volatility if may prove hazardous).