Tag Archives: MACD

Best Trading Strategy

Dear Friend if you are in search of best trading strategy which can earn you 100% returns in any market condition, than your search does not end here.  I am saying this because, you are in search of Holy Grail, and if I say straight forward than the word is myth.  Let me explain you what is Holy Grail – in simple words, for every trade you are certain about outcome, so you are expecting 100% accuracy in all trades you take.  That is why I am saying if you are search of Holy Grail of trading technique than you are fooling around with yourself.

In last couple of days, I received mails regarding;

  • What is the best trading setup, which can assure me best of returns?
  • How to improve my performance and take it toward 100%?
  • Is there any method, where I don’t have to put stop loss?

Above question are my understandings of their questions, which directly, indirectly ask me the same question.  Here, I try to answer above questions, and let me confess, I answer according to my little understanding of Technical Analysis, there can be much more intricacies involved in it, which I may not be able to answer.

Trading setup:-

It is nothing but the prefix methodology to Buy, Sell or Hold the stock.  As a basic principle, trader should know in advance where to enter and where to exit, if you don’t follow this simple rule than for sure you are out of the game very soon, if not today and than for guarantee tomorrow.  Defining this entry and exit is nothing but defining trading setup.  With any method you can pre-define your entry and exit; it all depends on your knowledge, experience & comfort.  There are number tools and methods are available, you can choose according to your understanding.  Let me take you through some most common methods,

  • Based on Moving Averages like Simple, Weighted & Exponential
  • Based on Trendline, Pitchfork line
  • Based on Momentum Oscillators like RSI, Stochastic, MACD, ROC, KST and many others
  • Based on Gann Square of Nine, Gann Angles & Gann price forecasting methodology.
  • Based on Elliot Wave Analysis or Glenn Nelly’s method
  • Based Statistical calculations, which are most commonly known as Algorithmic Trading.
  • Based on Price Behavior like Candlestick Study, Chaos Theory

Above is just broad outline on trading methods, each topic requires elaborate description, which I will try to cover in subsequent articles for sure.  From above, you can take any one method of combination from it, and just back study the outcome.  Whichever method gives you confidence can be Holy Grail for you.

Let me tell you very clearly, there is no method I came across which assure you 100% return in all market scenario and I am sure with this prominent technical analyst will agree with me.  Any method can give you best returns but you have to understand its limitation too.

And to answer last question, as such there is no method in which you don’t have to keep stop loss, but yes there are methods with which you can certainly increase your risk reward ratio.  For detailed explanation about Stop loss, you can read my article  Most Hated but Most Desired part of a Trade: – Stop Loss

ZINC – Still sometime to go short??

As most of the commodities are relaxing after last one and half months rally.  Similarly Zinc 1 month MCX contract is moving flat from last few days.  As on 28 Dec, 2012 Zinc closed at 111.35.  Last few days back it broke from its rising trendline, but as such we have not seen any follow through action barring few choppy sessions, but in last session prices has engulfed last fourteen trading sessions price movement and closed in red, at first instance which indicates that Bears are active now.  Momentum is fading to support the basis.  Based on above observations, I sense that if we see follow through action on Monday, than Zinc has potential to go down further.

ZINC - 111.35

                                                          ZINC – 111.35

I am little skeptical only because of Christmas & New year holiday in US.  Traders can take short position keeping trading stop loss of 113.40, with an initial target o 108.

 

ALUMINIUM – 111.60

As on 28th Dec, 2012 Aluminum 1 Month MCX contract closed at 111.60.  Here I see a minor selling opportunity for risk takers & aggressive traders, risk-averse can excuse at this point in time.  I am saying because I am little late in tapping the opportunity.

Technically, prices has broken out from one and half month rising trendline, and momentum is deteriorating.  MACD is already trading with bearish convergence and RSI is tilted downwards, indicating weakness in prices.

ALUMINIUM

Traders can short on rise or at CMP keeping stop loss of 113.40, if prices breaks below level of 111.10 than prices can move towards 109.50 and lower, and if not than prices can reverse the trend and continue to move higher.  As of now, I see selling opportunity with keeping strict stop loss.

NICKEL – 957.80

Nickel, after one and half months rally from low of 852 to high of 980, showing an initial sign of waning.  As we can see in below attached chart that, recently Nickel has broken its one and half month rising trend line.  Secondly, momentum oscillator MACD has given Bearish Convergence on daily chart, as well we can see that RSI is trading almost flat from last few days.  This gives us initial sign that momentum is waning, and if you are holding long Nickel than better book your partial profits here.  Confirmation of weakness comes in as and when Nickel close below 950 levels, and this will be the point where we like to go short in the counter, strategy should be taken according to risk appetite of individuals.

NICKEL AS ON 21 DEC 2012

NICKEL AS ON 21 DEC 2012