Tag Archives: Nifty Technical Analysis

nifty technical analysis, daily technical analysis on nifty

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 07 Sept’15

Bleeding Street…

I know most of my readers are traders and they can adjust their position with falling market as well, but out of all few are hardcore Investors as well and they are more concerned with their portfolios, as many of them must have accumulated stocks at higher levels, and now they are stuck. The whole market is bleeding because numbers of Investors are relatively larger then trader’s community.

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NIFTY DAILY CHART 05 SEPT

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 10 Aug’15

Markets in confused mode…

I always believe that reading market is an art, as you are trying to read the mindset of mass which includes smartest of smart guy and dumbest of all, but ultimately crowd gets segregated in broadly two category, one camp who has Bullish bias and another with Bearish Bias, there is another group of people who likes to keep mum but relatively number could be small, as compulsion of trading would not allow many to step aside (even though they knows the fact). So we have mass divided broadly in two categories-but what if, both groups get confused? Neither Bulls are ready to take charge, nor Bears are aggressive enough. It seems that currently Nifty is passing through such phase and nobody is clear to take firm stand. Let’s try to analyze and see where the probability of winning is favorable, that’s what we can do, rest market will tell us whether our assumptions went right or not.

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NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK 10 Aug 2015

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 27 July’15

Markets moves on its own…

Few days back I met one of my friend and he was frenzied about his expectations, as based on his analysis market is supposed to move higher, and at the same time one another friend of mine was sending me probabilities of market making a top here and likely to slope. How discrete both the opinions are, and mind you at some point in time both have proved their talent, so even I can’t challenge their idea. But this how market moves on its own, as if there is a buyer then there is seller and in the end one becomes winner and other becomes a loser, as one has to pay to another. Now who is going to pay to whom where whole dilemma lies in, but if you stay focus and follow the discipline then I am sure market will pay you, no matter at what side you stand. So once again I try my best to analyze and help you to get paid.

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nifty weekly chart 27 july

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 13 July’15

The Rule of Game – Keep Plan-B ready

When we play any mind game for example Chess or Cards, probability of winning game not only depends upon only on your techniques you know about the game, but also depends upon how you predict the next move, or with some refinement you understand psyche of your opponent and able to forecast next probable move, may be this theory does not apply in every game, but it certainly applies to stock markets. Stock market is reflection of psychology of mass (market participants) and if you able to guage that, then I think you are the master, and not to mention that there are many masters and super masters here, and I know few of them are subscribed to my newsletter as well, maybe you are one of them. Every trader and analyst try to approach market with different yardsticks and come to a conclusions, sometime go right sometimes go wrong, but I believe smart trader is those who are ready with Plan-B when the initial expectations go haywire. So let’s see what is Plan-A and Plan-B for coming week.

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technical view nifty 13 July'15

 

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 06 July’15

Nifty near Inflection Point…

From last many days our market is reacting to global concerns, mainly of Eurozone-Greek crisis, daily some or other news flashes- and still uncertainty persist, hopefully may get some answers by Monday. However, bigger worries hover around Chinese stock market which lost significant market-cap in last couple of days. The week will start with Greece news and also results season will kick-off, all in all it remains a question mark for those who understands little about macronomics and very big question mark for those who understands the macro and digging further (some times more knowledge, may create more quandary). In the markets, with experience I have learnt that whenever you fail to understand what is happening around, and standing in dilemma, it is always better to ignore the noise (news & media) and do what charts & data is suggesting you, period. So let’s see how to position yourself in the coming week, to read full report you need to Register here (it’s free) and if you are already registered then there no need to register again, you’ll shortly receive newsletter. To read last week’s full report click on this link to download the report.

nifty daily pitchfork analysis way2profits

 

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 29 June’15

Hitting the resistance…

Markets always surprise us, and if you just see in flash-back then it may give you some useful insights and lessons, and technical analysis is all about past and projecting future, isn’t it? The week gone by was surely in control of bulls, but when bulls showed their real strength, I think it was only on Monday when Nifty moved sharply higher, and instill confidence in broader market, and I would say that it may have enticed retail participants, post this event Nifty remained in almost 100 point range. Finally, Nifty managed to close above its previous expiry level of 8319, which opens window for further upside, but the move may not be that swift. So how you should position yourself for next week, to read full report you need to Register here (it’s free), and if you are already registered then there no need to register again, you’ll shortly receive newsletter. To read last week’s full report click on this link to download the report.

nifty view 29 june way2profits

 

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 22 June’15

Positive surprise…

The week passed by gave a positive surprise to Bulls and disappointed the hardcore Bears of the market. If you recollect pessimism in earlier week’s were so high that nobody had thought in his/her wild dream that by the week-end we’ll be standing tall above 8200 on positive remark. To stay afloat into this market you need to remain little flexible, you can’t stay adamant to your idea and analysis, otherwise you might put yourself in big trouble. And you need to stay true to yourself, if you fall in trap of lying with yourself, then I think it is biggest loss of yours, because it is not you are lying to yourself, but you are not ready to listen what market is saying, and as we know “Market is Supreme”, so be honest to yourself. If you are reader of my newsletter then you must know that I am the first person to admit my mistakes, and move forward. Now first take a look at what happened last week, and what to expect in coming week.

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Nifty weekly price outlook way2profits

 

 

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 15 June’15

Stock market is a reflection of an economy, and price is a reflection of state of healfishermanth of economy.  As Martin Pring noted in his book, all price movements have one thing in common: They are reflection of the trend in the hopes, fears, knowledge, optimism, and greed of market participants. The week passed by was nightmare for hardcore bulls and rejoice for bears, however I believe that ratio of bulls should be higher in compare to Smart Bears. In hindsight, move of Thursday was a trap for small fish (read as retail participants) by Fisherman (read as FII’s and few large institutions). Once again last week set an example for us, and we should learn from that, and restrict ourselves from committing same mistakes again and again.

nifty technical weekly view 15 july way 2profits, nifty positive divergence

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Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 01st June’15

Good is Bad or Bad is Good

Or Buy on Rumors & Sell on News

In last couple of weeks all good news are being sold off and bad news are welcomed. I was reading this article on Business Standard Net profit of Nifty firm’s halves in fourth quarter which was indicating that particularly last quarter was not good enough for most of the company, and if we see few odd examples of like SBIN & Reliance which posted good result, however stock price reacted adversely, while M&M which actually disappointed on results front were up significantly, now on Monday we need to see how L&T reacts to its numbers. The whole idea of writing above point is that, gradually our markets are heading towards maturity, and it also challenges team fundamentalist that you opinion is at stake, and if you don’t see beyond the boundary then one day you opinion will not matter much.  Anyways, let’s focus on our work and see how we should approach the market in the coming week.

Nifty weekly technical outlook for coming week 01 june 2015

  • In earlier three weeks Nifty managed to close and sustain above its previous week’s close, while in the last week Nifty ended marginally lower in compare to previous week’s close i.e. previous weeks close was 8458.95, whereas in last week Nifty closed at 8433.65. At the same time Bank Nifty and CNX Midcap both closed higher than previous week’s close.
  • Technically, Nifty will face stiff resistance near 8490-8500 levels, once it manages to cross and sustain above this level, it opens window for further upside. Since after posting a new high of 9119.20 on 4th March’15, Nifty is consistently forming lower peaks and troughs, but after forming a low of 7997.15 on 07 May’15, series of lower highs and lower lows is broken, now Nifty has formed one higher high and higher low and once swing high of 8490 will be taken away existing trend will get some more strength, because of Short covering rally, and few conservative group of market participant will start looking market will bulls eye.
  • Should it happen then where Nifty may head towards? Chart suggest that once swing high of 8490 will be taken away bull ride would not be so swift, as it is likely to struggle between 8525 to 8570 level as depicted in attached chart, where it has breach over falling trendline drawn from the highs, but if bulls manage to take out this particular level, then it will be clear breakout and may add another 200 points to rally.
  • As mentioned above Bank Nifty closed above previous weeks close at 18721.35, and once previous weeks high of 18755 will be taken out it may rise towards 19000-19200 levels.
  • The chart of USDINR – 63.7360 is suggesting that still it has scope to depreciate futher, and which adds to worry, as it is consolidating after steep rise, and not gave up, so if it starts to rally then it may create headache for Nifty Bulls.

Reader of my newsletter very well knows that I was quite vocal about my bullish bias since from 8000 levels and I was very much expecting rally in the market. As of now, to me charts are suggesting that stage is set for further rally in the market; however RBI policy will detect further tone of the market. So how I will position myself, I would prefer to remain bullish in the market keeping stop loss below 8270 on closing basis, for the upside target of 8550. On the upside if Nifty manages to sustain above 8550 then if opens window for another 200 points, at least 8750.  Interesting derivative data is suggesting broad range of 8000 to 8700-8800 levels, so traders may even look for Strangle and Straddle for better returns.

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 18 May’15

Silence before the Storm…

After a long time market entered into a phase where neither Bulls are making money nor Bears, only we have to assume that some smart people are exceptional (but I am even skeptical about them also). The way in which market was behaving during last week, with killing volatility it became real difficult to take any call and stand by with it. But nevertheless, we’ll try out best to find out or at least how to position our self in such a indecisive market.

In the last week I asked myself why anyone should subscribe to my idea or newsletter, and only answer I can give is If you want unbiased and neutral and thoroughly researched outlook, then you can certainly subscribe to our idea, because I am not concerned whether you are generating brokerage for me or not, or I am not concerned whether you like my straight forward opinion or not, so if you feel comfortable subscribe here to get our weekly newsletter in your mailbox, and if you are already subscribed then chill…

nifty between the two lines way2profits

Nifty Daily Chart

Broadly market is very much expecting rate cut and it can’t be overruled that market participants may have already discounted that possible positive trigger, but if on 2nd June RBI disappoints and does not announce any rate cut then the reaction may turn out to be disastrous. Let’s keep fingers cross.

Current BJP government has completed 1 year, and then now experts have started scaling the performance on their Ruler and now market has divided clearly in three groups, One group which is not at all satisfied with the Government in control (number may be small), second group who are satisfied with the performance (again number may be small), and lastly third group who believes that (or may be an optimistic believers) still some time needs to be given, as things take time to come on ground, here proportionately number could be large, again it is my own gestimate, you may differ with me, and I fall in between second and third group category. Anyways, essential point is whether efforts taken by Government is sufficient enough or not, and I kept answer upon you, and you may feel free to reply.

Technically, couple of things which needs to be noted, first extreme volatility as India VIX reached to 21.90 levels and in last session slightly cooled-off. Nifty formed Rising Three kind of Candlestick formation pattern (not in its purest form), which is a Bearish continuation pattern, but pattern get negated subsequently. Nifty remained engulfed by prior week’s price move, i.e. neither high of 8355 is not tested nor is low of 7997.15 taken out. So on weekly closing basis Nifty formed Doji candle and remained engulfed, reflects indecisive tone of the market.

Now Nifty is holding above its 200-DEMA which is currently placed at 8190 level, but holding below its 50-DEMA (8438), here bears of the markets are expecting some Death Cross over in days to come.

Similar to Nifty, Bank Nifty also remained engulfed by prior week’s move, but classic difference between two is, Bank Nifty closed marginally higher, and especially some buying interest was witnessed in PSU banks, which helped Bank Nifty to show some strength, and also it is on the verge of giving breakout from falling trendline. With this CNX Auto Index has also shown some strength in last few sessions.

Last week, we discussed about Rupee, which gave a breakout from consolidation, but USDINR moved marginally higher posted a high of 64.37 and cooled-off in last three sessions, settled at 63.43, which rescued the overall sentiment of the market.

Now based on above observations, how you should position yourself. Once again I reiterate that I don’t see any fundamental shift in the economy, and in fact if we see economic data which is improving on a gradual note. Technically, we are placed at an inflexion point where taking decision is extremely difficult. Nifty is placed between the two lines as depicted in attached chart; breakout in the direction will drive the further trend, so I would be keeping close eye on 8355 on the higher side and 8090 on the downside. Micro management of your position should be based your risk profile and your understanding of market, if you ask me I am buyer at current level and even somewhere upto 8140-8120 levels, keeping stop loss below 8090 (ideally stop loss should be kept on closing basis, but with this volatility if may prove hazardous).