Tag Archives: NIFTY

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 01st June’15

Good is Bad or Bad is Good

Or Buy on Rumors & Sell on News

In last couple of weeks all good news are being sold off and bad news are welcomed. I was reading this article on Business Standard Net profit of Nifty firm’s halves in fourth quarter which was indicating that particularly last quarter was not good enough for most of the company, and if we see few odd examples of like SBIN & Reliance which posted good result, however stock price reacted adversely, while M&M which actually disappointed on results front were up significantly, now on Monday we need to see how L&T reacts to its numbers. The whole idea of writing above point is that, gradually our markets are heading towards maturity, and it also challenges team fundamentalist that you opinion is at stake, and if you don’t see beyond the boundary then one day you opinion will not matter much.  Anyways, let’s focus on our work and see how we should approach the market in the coming week.

Nifty weekly technical outlook for coming week 01 june 2015

  • In earlier three weeks Nifty managed to close and sustain above its previous week’s close, while in the last week Nifty ended marginally lower in compare to previous week’s close i.e. previous weeks close was 8458.95, whereas in last week Nifty closed at 8433.65. At the same time Bank Nifty and CNX Midcap both closed higher than previous week’s close.
  • Technically, Nifty will face stiff resistance near 8490-8500 levels, once it manages to cross and sustain above this level, it opens window for further upside. Since after posting a new high of 9119.20 on 4th March’15, Nifty is consistently forming lower peaks and troughs, but after forming a low of 7997.15 on 07 May’15, series of lower highs and lower lows is broken, now Nifty has formed one higher high and higher low and once swing high of 8490 will be taken away existing trend will get some more strength, because of Short covering rally, and few conservative group of market participant will start looking market will bulls eye.
  • Should it happen then where Nifty may head towards? Chart suggest that once swing high of 8490 will be taken away bull ride would not be so swift, as it is likely to struggle between 8525 to 8570 level as depicted in attached chart, where it has breach over falling trendline drawn from the highs, but if bulls manage to take out this particular level, then it will be clear breakout and may add another 200 points to rally.
  • As mentioned above Bank Nifty closed above previous weeks close at 18721.35, and once previous weeks high of 18755 will be taken out it may rise towards 19000-19200 levels.
  • The chart of USDINR – 63.7360 is suggesting that still it has scope to depreciate futher, and which adds to worry, as it is consolidating after steep rise, and not gave up, so if it starts to rally then it may create headache for Nifty Bulls.

Reader of my newsletter very well knows that I was quite vocal about my bullish bias since from 8000 levels and I was very much expecting rally in the market. As of now, to me charts are suggesting that stage is set for further rally in the market; however RBI policy will detect further tone of the market. So how I will position myself, I would prefer to remain bullish in the market keeping stop loss below 8270 on closing basis, for the upside target of 8550. On the upside if Nifty manages to sustain above 8550 then if opens window for another 200 points, at least 8750.  Interesting derivative data is suggesting broad range of 8000 to 8700-8800 levels, so traders may even look for Strangle and Straddle for better returns.

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 13th Apr, 2015

Win over your emotions.

Many of my readers must be thinking that, it is easy to do an analysis and writing once market is over. I certainly agree with them, and may be after looking at last Thursday’s  and Friday’s price action, when Nifty almost gave a signal of breaking down and recovered from the lows. Honestly, it is very difficult to stay firm and maintain long position, if you are sitting in front of screen, even it was difficult for me. Today it is very easy for me to say that Overall tone of the market is Bullish, and Nifty was about to go higher after making a low. No I wouldn’t say this, rather I would admit that it was difficult and challenging task. From above observation, time and again I am coming across only one thought; You can make money in the market not with winning strategy, but with winning over your emotions.  Continue reading

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 30 March, 2015

When everybody is sailing in the same boat.

I was just thinking when every market participants will start thinking in the same line, what could be the outcome? Let me put it this way, when Nifty started moving below 8900 in this month, I started contemplating that what could be possible scenarios going ahead, and after some analysis I came with 2 scenarios out of which one was retesting of 8470 levels and at max ideally it should test 8410-8420 levels, and as market started drifting lower everybody started speaking about the same level. (Please, here I am not trying to prove myself better). And what happened in last 2 trading sessions, 8470 is easily taken out by bears, and honestly even I have not anticipated that market will make such low (8269), so quickly. Anyways, that is how the market is.

Continue reading

NIFTY VIEW 09 OCT’2014

Hello Mates!

After a long time, yaaah,.

Whether we like it or not Nifty is heading towards 7740 levels?  Followers of classical technical analyst will say Yes, Nifty has broken the support of 7840 levels and now some further pain is offing, and even i agree with that. But considering, Bull market scenario, i would give benefit of doubt unless and untill Nifty give close below 7840 levels.  May be Bank Nifty may turn out to be a savior for the Nifty, never know. KEEP FINGERS CROSSED..

Bank Nifty & Nifty Trading Strategy for 11 July’13

Nifty as on 10 July’13– 5816.70 (-42.30)    Bank Nifty as on 10 July’13– 11364.45 (-78.00)

Close Friendship of two price levels.

Bulls were about to take charge, and unfortunately Bears broke the myths. According to our understanding it was just 30 points game, even we mentioned yesterday also, but see Nifty made a high of 5879.35 not even 5890, and finally took sharp U turn and settled on support of 5816. Market is playing game of catching the ball, what we used to play in our childhood. You and your friend stands opposite to each other, one throws the ball and other catches. Nifty is doing the same thing between 5900 and 5800 like two close friends. Don’t know when they will break the friendship. We had expected market has a fare chance to move on upside, (we gave 70% probability, but above 5890 levels).

Nifty Trading Strategy

As long as Nifty is trading above 5780-5750 level, we should not turn bearish on the market, but once 5750 is taken away on closing basis then we have to give serious thought. For intraday perspective, aggressive traders can go short below 5790 with stop of 5820.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

As we mentioned yesterday, we need to see close above 11500 till that time keep watch on it. In the last session Bank Nifty made a high of 11540 (honestly, we also thought that yes, it has done it), and it screwed up whole idea. Anyways, move below 11350 can take prices further lower towards 11000. Opening will be important.

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 08th July, 2013

Nifty as on 5 July, Weekly Chart

Nifty as on 5 July, Weekly Chart

Nifty Technical Analysis, Daily Chart

Nifty Technical Analysis, Daily Chart

Be Flexible to ride the choppy move…

Sometimes market gives you a chance to earn and builds your confidence, and sometimes its thrash away your gained confidence, and you start doubting yourself, whether I was right or wrong. If you just try to interpret story of market legendary then you will learn that this legends has struggled with their ego, with their emotions, and accepted all the challenges they came across and gradually they succeeded to defeat them. I used word gradually, because its not one day job, its ongoing process for every traders.[stextbox id=”info” direction=”ltr” shadow=”true” float=”true” align=”right”]To Know about Option Alphas Click here[/stextbox]

Last week, market thrown challenge to every trader and many got trapped, many felt disheartened and many started evaluating new strategy for the market. Let us confess, we are not immune to this phenomenon.

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Bank Nifty & Nifty Trading Strategy for 05 July’13

Nifty as on 04 July’13– 5863.95 (+66.05)    Bank Nifty as on 04 July’13– 11381.20 (+23.40)

It seems that Bulls grab the last opportunity.

On intraday basis Nifty and Bank Nifty witnessed high volatility, move was like a roller-coaster ride, and finally Nifty closed with gains, and Bank Nifty stayed neutral. Again both are not in sync, while CNX IT is turning up positive.

Now, Nifty has stiff resistance near 5890, any closing above this level will be confirmation that yes, Bulls have a fare chance to take over, below this level move will be skeptical.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Stay long in Nifty with stop loss of 5820 on closing basis. Mind it, still it is just an intraday opportunity, all factors are not in favor of bulls, especially on weekly basis, outlook is still little dicey, may be one or two more positive closes will give boost to weekly time frame.  So don’t get carried away.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

As we mentioned above Bank Nifty is closed with doji like candle, with no real body, which is a sign of indecision. If, Nifty has underlying strength then today, Bank Nifty should ideally perform and break the myths. Turn long in Bank Nifty above 11500. Short opportunity opens below 11300 level.