Tag Archives: Reliance Industries

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 20 Apr’15

It’s all about Analysis???

Most of the hardcore traders starts their day with preparation, they prepared themselves in advance with action plan for some probable scenarios (if you don’t fall in this category, then I would suggest follow this rule strictly). Even I start my day with work done last night, and most of the time I go right and feel proud of myself. Now, you must be thinking that I am applauding myself, right??? No, I am not. The point I am trying to make is even after going right on analysis part, I am losing on my trades. Now, you must be thinking how it is possible? Let me come directly to the point, last week in the beginning itself I was anticipating that Nifty is likely to find resistance near 8850-8900 levels, and which I had already shared here, however, when Nifty made a high of 8844.80 I was anticipating further rise, may be gain of couple of more points, but eventually Nifty gave up all the gains on same day and closed significantly lower. Now, the bull inside me stopped me to look real picture, and still I thought maybe it is just one day, you might see some recovery tomorrow, but it did not materialized and now we are standing at 8606 levels. By sharing this thought, I am trying to make a point that, it is not just analysis; it is also your mindset which plays vital role to make you a good trader. Let’s check the current health of the market and how to remain more vigilant and objective to get best out of the market.

weekly technical analysis 20 Apr'15

 

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Weekly Technical View for 08 July onwards – Harish Thakkar

Technical Views from our Guest Author Mr. Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart by Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Chart by Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Line Chart by Harish Thakkar

Nifty Daily Line Chart by Harish Thakkar

5931 is weekly swing high key reversal for Nifty. Momentum above 5760 to cross psychological 5900 will remain above Fibo. 5824 & week pivot 5844 as per chart. If cluster of resistance passed & if 5931 is conquered 1st target will be 5996, than 6113 as per charts. Possibilities of new low exists below 61.8%= 5695 & above this consolidations.

Bank Nifty underperforming key reversal = 11753

RIL with monthly double bottom 764 has cluster of daily tops, resistance (Weekly top also) 900.Buy RIL put options 860 when spot price is near 900 will low risk & high return trade.

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Reliance – Dormant Player

Yesterday, one of my friend called and asked me- Boss, Shoo lage che? Ahiya Reliance lai lau? (What is my view on stock market & especially on Reliance).  As my dear friend is Gujarati, so he had obvious attachment with Reliance Industries, and undoubtedly from my childhood I happened to listen many big and flourishing story from Investors of Reliance, and my friend’s father also earned handsome money from the stock, so it was quite obvious that same feeling is imbibed in my friend also.

What I shared with my friend let me share with you guys. A simple chart will tell you more than what I can write here.

Below is attached monthly chart of Reliance Industries, as in itself speaks thousand words than I do.

Reliance Chart

As you can very well see that since from mid of 2009 till June 2011, stock maintained a price range of INR 1150-950 on a downside.  Going ahead, stock moved one step down, range is shifted lower; from July 2011 to till date stock has maintained an upside range of INR 900 to INR 690 on a downside.  This you can very well see in attached chart.  Let me tell you Reliance Industries has significant amount of weight- age in NIFTY and SENSEX ~8%. Now in this scenario, if stock behaves in such a fashion what should be stand of any individual investor?  Answer, is also quite obvious, for time being you should ignore and move ahead.  I know my Gujarati friend is hurt by this statement, but it is an obvious choice to make.  Many of you would counter question me that “If we are long term investor, we don’t mind to hold a stock even for 3-5 years?”  For them, I would only suggest that,

Please Don’t fall in love with your Investments, It is not necessary that what happened in past will happen in future.