Tag Archives: RSI

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 18 May’15

Silence before the Storm…

After a long time market entered into a phase where neither Bulls are making money nor Bears, only we have to assume that some smart people are exceptional (but I am even skeptical about them also). The way in which market was behaving during last week, with killing volatility it became real difficult to take any call and stand by with it. But nevertheless, we’ll try out best to find out or at least how to position our self in such a indecisive market.

In the last week I asked myself why anyone should subscribe to my idea or newsletter, and only answer I can give is If you want unbiased and neutral and thoroughly researched outlook, then you can certainly subscribe to our idea, because I am not concerned whether you are generating brokerage for me or not, or I am not concerned whether you like my straight forward opinion or not, so if you feel comfortable subscribe here to get our weekly newsletter in your mailbox, and if you are already subscribed then chill…

nifty between the two lines way2profits

Nifty Daily Chart

Broadly market is very much expecting rate cut and it can’t be overruled that market participants may have already discounted that possible positive trigger, but if on 2nd June RBI disappoints and does not announce any rate cut then the reaction may turn out to be disastrous. Let’s keep fingers cross.

Current BJP government has completed 1 year, and then now experts have started scaling the performance on their Ruler and now market has divided clearly in three groups, One group which is not at all satisfied with the Government in control (number may be small), second group who are satisfied with the performance (again number may be small), and lastly third group who believes that (or may be an optimistic believers) still some time needs to be given, as things take time to come on ground, here proportionately number could be large, again it is my own gestimate, you may differ with me, and I fall in between second and third group category. Anyways, essential point is whether efforts taken by Government is sufficient enough or not, and I kept answer upon you, and you may feel free to reply.

Technically, couple of things which needs to be noted, first extreme volatility as India VIX reached to 21.90 levels and in last session slightly cooled-off. Nifty formed Rising Three kind of Candlestick formation pattern (not in its purest form), which is a Bearish continuation pattern, but pattern get negated subsequently. Nifty remained engulfed by prior week’s price move, i.e. neither high of 8355 is not tested nor is low of 7997.15 taken out. So on weekly closing basis Nifty formed Doji candle and remained engulfed, reflects indecisive tone of the market.

Now Nifty is holding above its 200-DEMA which is currently placed at 8190 level, but holding below its 50-DEMA (8438), here bears of the markets are expecting some Death Cross over in days to come.

Similar to Nifty, Bank Nifty also remained engulfed by prior week’s move, but classic difference between two is, Bank Nifty closed marginally higher, and especially some buying interest was witnessed in PSU banks, which helped Bank Nifty to show some strength, and also it is on the verge of giving breakout from falling trendline. With this CNX Auto Index has also shown some strength in last few sessions.

Last week, we discussed about Rupee, which gave a breakout from consolidation, but USDINR moved marginally higher posted a high of 64.37 and cooled-off in last three sessions, settled at 63.43, which rescued the overall sentiment of the market.

Now based on above observations, how you should position yourself. Once again I reiterate that I don’t see any fundamental shift in the economy, and in fact if we see economic data which is improving on a gradual note. Technically, we are placed at an inflexion point where taking decision is extremely difficult. Nifty is placed between the two lines as depicted in attached chart; breakout in the direction will drive the further trend, so I would be keeping close eye on 8355 on the higher side and 8090 on the downside. Micro management of your position should be based your risk profile and your understanding of market, if you ask me I am buyer at current level and even somewhere upto 8140-8120 levels, keeping stop loss below 8090 (ideally stop loss should be kept on closing basis, but with this volatility if may prove hazardous).

Nifty & Bank Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 07 Oct, 2013

Nifty Technical Analysis Chart

Nifty Technical Analysis Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Technical Analysis Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Technical Analysis Chart

After bundle of surprises and shock September month is over, but as we are progressing in October month, market started trading with utmost risk and volatility, and it is likely to continue in days to come, that is for sure. To being unsure there are many primary questions which needs to be answered, like we started Bull Trend or still moving under correction? , whether top is done or market is likely to move higher again? CNX IT Index, whether is going to correct in near future or will move higher  and push broad markets? Bank Nifty will under perform or outperform the market? Where Rupee is heading toward, what could be next move in Rupee? Should we accumulate Gold or we should wait for prices to correct?

Like that there are many questions which remain unanswered. At Way2Profits, we don’t claim to answer all this question, but yes, time and again we try to answer this questions?

As Denis Waitley Said “Don’t dwell on what went wrong. Instead, focus on what to do next. Spend your energies on moving forward toward finding the answer.”

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Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 02nd Sept, 2013

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Expiry is over, August month also passed. We think August’13 will be one of most remarkable month of 2013 where Rupee witnessed one of the Sharpest depreciation in its lifetime, which was not only sharp in absolute terms but also in percentage term. And this move has taken away sleep of many. In reaction to that Stock market also collapsed.

Let’s take snap shot of Nifty & Bank Nifty

Mates, week on week basis there is only change of 0.05 only to mention about, because in prior week Nifty closed at 5471.85 and in last week it settled at 5471.80. But last week’s range was 380.55, bit higher than prior weeks range. And also we get big big Hammer on Weekly basis and that to second time in continuation. Does that mean bottom-fishing happening at lower levels?

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for 22nd July, 2013

Nifty Weekly  Chart

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Market is Supreme…

Whatever we say is less to explain last week’s market action. It was nothing less than a movie, with all colors of thrill, fear, hope and greed. It was really challenging week for any trader, in fact let us put it this way, past all three weeks of July passed on with big surprises. Trader has a big fear to lose money in the market, but greed makes him drive to trade, and even though he/she is right on way, market has a capacity to prove them wrong. Exactly, what happened in last week.

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Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 15th July, 2013

Nifty Weekly Chart as on 12 July,13

Nifty Weekly Chart as on 12 July,13

Nifty Daily Chart as on 12 July, 13

Nifty Daily Chart as on 12 July, 13

Grinding is over, and Speculation Begins…

After last week’s grinding move, finally Nifty gave breakout. Basically, last two weeks were nerve breaking for all traders. Every week, we learn something from markets and something from our mistakes. To become good trader, you should always try to learn from your mistakes.  According to our understanding, last week’s lesson was Patience. In all the conditions traders has to keep patience and wait for right opportunity and grab it like a panther when it comes.

Let’s take a Technical View on Nifty.

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Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 24th June, 2013

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty Weekly Chart

Every market moves in the waves form, if you able to catch the direction of the wave than you have won half the battle, half you can win by controlling your emotional factors, and keeping right attitude. Today, you must be thinking that it is just wisdom thoughts taken from some famous author’s book, but dear friend, trust me it is our understanding, and one day as you progress with us, you’ll realize the fact and agree with us.

World markets, whether its Equity, Commodity or Forex all were eyeing on FOMC meetings outcome, and finally it declared, (we are sure you’ll all know details); in reaction to that Equity market panicked and turned down sharply, while Commodity and Forex market witnessed some gains, but everything proved short sighted, market moved in its original wave.

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Technical analysis on Crude Oil

Crude Oil as on 10 Apr’13 – 5140

It’s almost a year to complete, Crude Oil is moving in Triangle formation. After giving an initial breakout in last week, prices corrected further and reentered within triangle formation. In the first instance move appears to be false breakout.

Crude Oil as on 10 Apr’13 – 5140

Crude Oil as on 10 Apr’13 – 5140

As depicted in above chart, prices moved higher after testing its long term moving average and in last few days prices are correcting a bit, but still prices holds above its 50-day EMA, and also on the downside it has support from its average.

Momentum oscillator RSI (14) also holds above 40 level, so it gives possibility of positive turnaround in prices.

Trading Strategy-

Combining above technical observation, traders can go long once prices move above 5180 level with stop loss below 5050 level. If prices hold above 5200 mark than I sense prices will move to retest recent high of 5517 and gradually move higher. But go slow & steady.

 

technical analysis on nifty by way2profits

Ride with Trend, Not with Perceptions.

Weekly Outlook

Nifty as on 22th March, 2013 – 5651.35

Week begins with opening gap down straight away at 5816, and remained below this level for whole week. Sometimes it becomes difficult to trade in such type of situation, where many thing comes at a place and traders get confused whether to take short position or not, because our sell level was 5835. Anyways, if you have confidence on your system than you should not doubt on your system in any given condition, but this confidence only comes with experience. On Monday morning only, few of my readers called me and asked me whether we should wait or sell, and my answer was straight, below 5835 there is no meaning to think twice, only concern was stop loss, and I asked them to put stop loss at 5861 previous day’s low, and then after they managed the position. Then after I got to know that they take early exit in profit, and could not ride the profit, anyways it happens with everyone, including me.

Coming to recent development, as you can see there is clear cut positive divergence between price and RSI (14), and now we have to see whether it honors the divergence or not. I sense it will, but it has still potential to go down further, so rather taking early call we should wait and look at Monday’s price action.

Strategy should be like this, if prices manage to stay above 5670 in first half than, you take long position, and if Nifty moves below 5650 than you can take short position with stop loss of previous day’s high i.e. 5695 level.

Last week, I was expecting Nifty to turn positive, but it moved reversed, anyway I was prepared for that. I know you will be thinking that, now what my stand is? As last week I have mentioned that I am not extremely Bearish on Market and still I maintain my stance, but if Nifty moves below 5550 and gives close below this level than I have reason turn extremely cautious and I will turn extremely bearish below 5400, yes levels are far from here, so you have leeway till that point.

But lastly I would suggest you should Ride with trend, not with your Perceptions.

One tour in currency space.

Generally, I get less chance to look at currency charts, but still sometimes I look at it. Let’s begin with Dollar Index, than EUR/USD and lastly USD/INR.

Dollar Index as on 15 Mar’13 – 82.13

On 14 Mar’13 Dollar Index made a high of 83.16 and finally ended 29 days (trading days) long rally (It seems that rally is ended). From 1st Feb’13 onward prices made a bottom of 78.19 and moving on continuing basis, in between easily taken off resistance of its major 200 DEMA. I am saying that this rally is ended because of last two days price action, which has given two big red candles confirming underlying weakness in prices, with that RSI (14) has also confirmed the fact by moving towards 50-line. And also as depicted in attached we can clearly see rising trend line breakout.

dollar index-way2profits

Dollar Index as on 15 Mar’13 – 82.13

It seems that prices moved in impulsive structure, so I expect prices to retrace prior move by at least 38.2% or higher, so initial target comes near 81.52 and next 81.00 from current level. Traders can keep stop loss of 82.61.

EUR/USD as on 15 Mar’13 – 1.3074

Similarly EUR/USD shows reversal signal after falling spree from high of 1.3703 by making a bottom of 1.2911 on 14 Mar’13.  FIBER stands close to its major 200-DEMA, and also prices broke out from falling trendline as depicted in attached chart.

EURUSD-way2profits

EUR/USD as on 15 Mar’13 – 1.3074

Traders can take long position above 1.3105 with stop loss of 1.3016. I expect initially prices to test at least 1.3225 and next 1.3300. Subsequently we can easily trail the stop loss and play the ride.

Finally,

USD/INR as on 15 Mar’13 – 54.02

I am starting with weekly chart. As it is clearly visible Head & Shoulder pattern. Few weeks ago one of my friend has drawn out attention on this pattern, with his analysis, but at that point in time I was not convinced to turn extremely bearish on Dollar, but as pattern is progressing I am becoming little skeptical.

usdinr-way2profits

USDINR Weekly Chart

Few weeks ago prices gave false breakdown and immediately reversed; but after that again prices struggling to go higher and that is the sign that is alerting me.

usdinr-way2profit

USDINR Daily Chart

From daily chart it is evident that prices moving in congestion, not giving clear clues. But I sense that prices will move lower, and will test support of major trendline as depicted in attached chart, and after that we have to take fresh call on USD/INR price movement.

 

 

 

 

 

In search of clarity.

In the last week, after giving bearish view, Nifty gave big surprise on last Thursday by turning positive, and again today i.e. on Friday Nifty turned weak again. In such choppy scenario what should be our stand as a trader? I will try to answer your query. As I am not being paid by you, so please expect genuine and unbiased view from me, and still if you find mistakes than you are most welcome to put your comments.

way2profits, way2profit

Nifty as on 15 March’13 – 5872.60

Let me start with giving one bold statement, Nifty has not turned its party with Big Bears, still there is a hope and I am hopeful,,(I am talking in respect to slightly longer term view), obviously in short term correction can happen and you have to stay with trend, even in short term also. So my bold statement is, I am not extremely Bearish on Market”, If I will turn I will let you know. (Caution, prices are standing very close to turn whole game).

Now coming to recent price development.

As you can see in attached chart, twice Nifty tested 5971 and turned lower, so it becomes good resistance point to watch for. And with that I have drawn Fibonacci Retracement in corrective leg from high of 6111.80 to low of 5663.60. Golden Fibonacci Ratio 61.8% of this move comes at 5940, so you have another strong price point to resist price movement.

Taking above retracement, 38.2% ratio comes near 5835, where in past prices made swing high near 5815, so all in all you have a good support here.

Momentum oscillator RSI (14) exhibiting bearish tone, but still it needs confirmation from price movement.

What should be trading strategy?

I am risk-averse trader, and I would always like to take safe bets. Traders can go long once prices moves above 5970 mark, or go short below 5835. Now, stop loss will be based on your risk appetite, but ideally if you are keeping stop loss of 40 points than now you have to keep stop slightly higher, considering high sudden high volatility in market. If you entering in to trader once prices close above or below, than your stop loss should be previous day’s low or high (keep margin of few pips).

Let me also tell you, according to Elliot Wave Analysis, current price action is corrective nature, and I also agree with that, but rather preempting I would like to go with flow, because anyways, even if we know right wave, we are not going to ride wave based on principles, so better stick with what you are comfortable.

I will be waiting for your replies….