Tag Archives: Samir Arora

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 19 Oct’15

Nifty above its major average…

After almost fourty days of dilemma once again market is pouring hope in to the minds of trader. You must be thinking why I am writing this-yesterday one of my friend called me to confirm my view, first question was are we ready to for new highs?  And I was little shocked, and he gave one another shock is it possible by January or max by February? I understood that he is not asking, but he is conveying his own view, and I answered him what is your gut feeling, he said it is very much possible. In the hindsight I was thinking that just few days back traders were searching reasons of collapse, then what can come to rescue the fall, after stoppage again hope of revival and reasons to push the market higher. Its not the objective way, I think right way to approach the market, should always be focus on next possible area of confluence or area of least resistance. In this weekly report we’ll analyze and see how to approach the market, and stay on the right side.

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19 oct weekly outlook

The week passed by…

  • In the first three trading session momentum was appearing slightly bleak, however by Thursday & Friday wings turn on other side, and scenario start appearing optimistic. Week on week basis Nifty closed with gains of 48 points and formed candle Hanging man, essentially it tells us buying interest at lower levels, but at the same time we should take little caution as well.
  • Finally, NF closed above its major 200-DEMA after 36 trading sessions, which gives me little hope of recovery, and also 50 & 21-DEMA (8060-8080) is placed at lower levels to support the price on any minor correction.
  • NF has filled the gap of 8060-8225 and closed above it, and on moving above weekly high, it will target for another unfilled gap near 8322-8360 levels.
  • Amongst the oscillators 14-period RSI is exhibiting strength, however I need furthermore confirmation from it, but as of now flow suggest bullish bias.
  • As depicted in attached, while drawing trendline from swing highs, we get two lines which and that is the area where NF is going to face utmost resistance, because this is the area above which underlying negativity may cooled-off and NF targets for higher levels.
  • Among other Indices, Bank Nifty appears to be prepared for next leg of rally, and chart structure of NF & BNF looks similar.
  • On Friday CNXAUTO has formed Star candle and now we need to see whether it turns out to be a Evening star, so keep watch of Monday’s closing, otherwise setup appears to be decent enough.
  • CNXIT disappointed the participants, or lets put it in right sense, major IT companies had disappointed market participants or Research Analyst community. Here once again I remember Ace Fund managers tweet

  • CNXMETAL after a flurry move in earlier week, turned quite in last week. So once again, better to take profits on the table, and wait for next move.
  • Keep watch on CNXMIDCAP, as such in last week was not much happening here, but it seems that next week can be action pegged here.
  • Structurally CNXPHARMA is forming Ascending Triangle kind of a formation, but mind you it is not always necessary that breakout comes on the upside only, it can come either side. To turn bullish wait for 13400 to cross.

Derivative Insights

  • Till date FII’s have infused more than 3100 crore of capital, whereas in just single day (Thusday) DII’s bought to the tune of 2744.55 and now for the month they stand at 2300 crore (sheer jump from negative to positive)
  • Week on week basis FII’s have cut there long position to the tune of 59386 contracts and to similar extent shorts are build 50932 contracts. It seems that institutions have done some profit booking or reduced their position to tune of 1452 crores.
  • Interestingly if we observe Options build-up of FII’s only, then they are long call options 91213 contracts and Put longs are reduced by 61934 contracts. At the same time they have unwound call shorts are build by 89469, while 46021 Put contracts are short build. Above points indicates little cautiousness, like last week FII’s are not very bullish on the market.

Last week’s review – I expect in this week markets are likely to remain highly volatile, as nobody will turn out to be clear winner. Level specific, NF on sustaining above 8225 will target of 8325 levels and may be it can target for 8390-8400, but sustenance near this level is a big challenge. On the downside supports are placed near 8100, and till NF holds above this level, I prefer to stay long if at all it corrects below 8000 then one think to create shorts, between 8100-8000 is neutral zone..  Weekly low for the NF was 8088.60.

As on Friday NF stands at 8238 and weekly high is 8246.40. On the top I had clearly mentioned that weekly candle suggest little cautiousness, so it is better to turn little skeptical, and allow NF to hold and sustain above 8250, if it does then stay put with long position and target for 8325-8350 levels, and if fails to do so then allow for some retracement upto  8150-8130, where one may take some risk and go long keeping stop loss below 8080.

In the attached chart I market big circle which is area of confluence between 8350-8400, and my anticipation is that, this area will not be taken out so easily, so in the first go I would prefer to take the profit on table, and then evaluate for next move.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Technical Analysis for 22 Oct’13

Nifty as on 21 Oct’13– 6204.95 (+15.60)    Bank Nifty as on 21 Oct’13– 10797.60 (+52.70)

In our weekly update we discuss about price action in past, as market is approaching near to the top.  Today, morning we were browsing through some news, we came across the video of Ace Fund Manager Mr. Samir Arora and his one statement hits to our mind, that “everybody is talking about market is near all time high, but Does this look alike all time High”. Probably exactly what we tried to say in our weekly report.  (Hopefully, one day we can also describe whole story in just one statement – Amin) If anybody wish to hear him then click here

Coming on to today’s market. Nifty and Bank Nifty both remained range bound, although few stocks were outperformed the markets. But, if we see Indices then it is the signal of indecision, now we have to see who comes ahead next day.

Few of our readers asked us, whether you see Inverted Head & Shoulder patter in Nifty? In simple words answer is No. Look at patterns where it is likely to happen. Every structure is not necessarily emerge as particular pattern.  We know that this confusion is created by few brokerage houses and few bloggers.

Nifty Trading Strategy.

Retail participants must be looking for entry point in Nifty, as they have missed out feeling. We would suggest don’t get carried away. If at all you want stay in market, go stock specific now its high time for Nifty. Keep Patience, you’ll also get chance.

Bank Nifty Trading Strategy

Frankly, we are of the opinion that Bank Nifty can test 11200 levels, but not convinced much by looking at breadth of the market and price behavior. Here, also we like to stay apart.

Keep visiting Way2Profits, for unbiased Daily view on the Nifty and Bank Nifty.