Tag Archives: USDINR

Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 06 July’15

Nifty near Inflection Point…

From last many days our market is reacting to global concerns, mainly of Eurozone-Greek crisis, daily some or other news flashes- and still uncertainty persist, hopefully may get some answers by Monday. However, bigger worries hover around Chinese stock market which lost significant market-cap in last couple of days. The week will start with Greece news and also results season will kick-off, all in all it remains a question mark for those who understands little about macronomics and very big question mark for those who understands the macro and digging further (some times more knowledge, may create more quandary). In the markets, with experience I have learnt that whenever you fail to understand what is happening around, and standing in dilemma, it is always better to ignore the noise (news & media) and do what charts & data is suggesting you, period. So let’s see how to position yourself in the coming week, to read full report you need to Register here (it’s free) and if you are already registered then there no need to register again, you’ll shortly receive newsletter. To read last week’s full report click on this link to download the report.

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Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 18 May’15

Silence before the Storm…

After a long time market entered into a phase where neither Bulls are making money nor Bears, only we have to assume that some smart people are exceptional (but I am even skeptical about them also). The way in which market was behaving during last week, with killing volatility it became real difficult to take any call and stand by with it. But nevertheless, we’ll try out best to find out or at least how to position our self in such a indecisive market.

In the last week I asked myself why anyone should subscribe to my idea or newsletter, and only answer I can give is If you want unbiased and neutral and thoroughly researched outlook, then you can certainly subscribe to our idea, because I am not concerned whether you are generating brokerage for me or not, or I am not concerned whether you like my straight forward opinion or not, so if you feel comfortable subscribe here to get our weekly newsletter in your mailbox, and if you are already subscribed then chill…

nifty between the two lines way2profits

Nifty Daily Chart

Broadly market is very much expecting rate cut and it can’t be overruled that market participants may have already discounted that possible positive trigger, but if on 2nd June RBI disappoints and does not announce any rate cut then the reaction may turn out to be disastrous. Let’s keep fingers cross.

Current BJP government has completed 1 year, and then now experts have started scaling the performance on their Ruler and now market has divided clearly in three groups, One group which is not at all satisfied with the Government in control (number may be small), second group who are satisfied with the performance (again number may be small), and lastly third group who believes that (or may be an optimistic believers) still some time needs to be given, as things take time to come on ground, here proportionately number could be large, again it is my own gestimate, you may differ with me, and I fall in between second and third group category. Anyways, essential point is whether efforts taken by Government is sufficient enough or not, and I kept answer upon you, and you may feel free to reply.

Technically, couple of things which needs to be noted, first extreme volatility as India VIX reached to 21.90 levels and in last session slightly cooled-off. Nifty formed Rising Three kind of Candlestick formation pattern (not in its purest form), which is a Bearish continuation pattern, but pattern get negated subsequently. Nifty remained engulfed by prior week’s price move, i.e. neither high of 8355 is not tested nor is low of 7997.15 taken out. So on weekly closing basis Nifty formed Doji candle and remained engulfed, reflects indecisive tone of the market.

Now Nifty is holding above its 200-DEMA which is currently placed at 8190 level, but holding below its 50-DEMA (8438), here bears of the markets are expecting some Death Cross over in days to come.

Similar to Nifty, Bank Nifty also remained engulfed by prior week’s move, but classic difference between two is, Bank Nifty closed marginally higher, and especially some buying interest was witnessed in PSU banks, which helped Bank Nifty to show some strength, and also it is on the verge of giving breakout from falling trendline. With this CNX Auto Index has also shown some strength in last few sessions.

Last week, we discussed about Rupee, which gave a breakout from consolidation, but USDINR moved marginally higher posted a high of 64.37 and cooled-off in last three sessions, settled at 63.43, which rescued the overall sentiment of the market.

Now based on above observations, how you should position yourself. Once again I reiterate that I don’t see any fundamental shift in the economy, and in fact if we see economic data which is improving on a gradual note. Technically, we are placed at an inflexion point where taking decision is extremely difficult. Nifty is placed between the two lines as depicted in attached chart; breakout in the direction will drive the further trend, so I would be keeping close eye on 8355 on the higher side and 8090 on the downside. Micro management of your position should be based your risk profile and your understanding of market, if you ask me I am buyer at current level and even somewhere upto 8140-8120 levels, keeping stop loss below 8090 (ideally stop loss should be kept on closing basis, but with this volatility if may prove hazardous).

Nifty and Bank Nifty Technical Analysis for 19 Sept’13

Nifty as on 17 Sept’13– 5899.45 (+49.25)    Bank Nifty as on 17 Sept’13– 10447.85 (+168.25)

After staying dull for most of the day, Nifty gained in last 45 minutes. In fact, in the last article only we mentioned that on hourly time frame Nifty is looking slightly positive. At the same time Bank Nifty is ready to give tough fight now, and who knows it becomes perfomer now. Keep Fingers Cross. On the other side, CNX IT Index is dancing on the tunes of USD/INR movement, it seems that this stocks has lost its own identity and their future is only decided by INR movement,

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Nifty and Bank Nifty Technical Analysis for 11 Sept’13

Nifty as on 10 Sept’13– 5896.75 (+216.35)    Bank Nifty as on 10 Sept’13– 10188.25 (+226.85)

What Drives the Markets? Many a times it is big puzzle for market participants. Yesterday (Tuesday) was the day when everyone get shocked by the rally. Yes, positive undertone was very very much expected, but movement of almost 4% with gains of 216 was not expected at all. This rally has serious contribution from USD/INR, which started appreciating (INR) rapidly.

Now, bulls are in full swing and euphoria has already build up, taking any fresh longs will be much riskier, if not already long. Banking sector has not performed in last sessions rally, and which depicts weak tone, but still we expect some positive move, unless and until low of 10084 is taken away.

Nifty Trading Strategy

Nifty after making high of 5900, settled slightly below. Fresh longs can be taken above 5900 with financial stop loss of 20. But, if Nifty holds below 5900 level, then aggressive traders can take short position, risk here is, may be in Intraday volatility there could be high chance that your stop can be taken away by spikes. So, better take small bet, but don’t compromise on stop loss.

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Nifty Weekly Technical Outlook for 02nd Sept, 2013

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Bank Nifty Daily Chart

Expiry is over, August month also passed. We think August’13 will be one of most remarkable month of 2013 where Rupee witnessed one of the Sharpest depreciation in its lifetime, which was not only sharp in absolute terms but also in percentage term. And this move has taken away sleep of many. In reaction to that Stock market also collapsed.

Let’s take snap shot of Nifty & Bank Nifty

Mates, week on week basis there is only change of 0.05 only to mention about, because in prior week Nifty closed at 5471.85 and in last week it settled at 5471.80. But last week’s range was 380.55, bit higher than prior weeks range. And also we get big big Hammer on Weekly basis and that to second time in continuation. Does that mean bottom-fishing happening at lower levels?

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Bank Nifty & Nifty Technical Analysis for 07 Aug’13

Nifty as on 06 Aug’13– 5542.25 (-143.15)    Bank Nifty as on 06 Aug’13– 9703.10 (-391.80)

Unexpectedly Nifty witness sharp falls in last hour of the session. Yes, we had not anticipated such dramatic fall in last session. If we have chance to held anyone liable then it was USD/INR which was culprit of this move. Anyways, while at the time of closing pair appreciated sharply and probably considering this fact, today market may witness some sharp rebound.

As we mentioned even in our last update also that if Nifty breaks below ~5500, then we have to worry a lot. In the last session made a low of 5521.80, very close to it hmmm…

Nifty Trading Strategy

Below 5650-5640 we are little skeptical to turn bullish again, and we’ll try to recover some losses.

One tour in currency space.

Generally, I get less chance to look at currency charts, but still sometimes I look at it. Let’s begin with Dollar Index, than EUR/USD and lastly USD/INR.

Dollar Index as on 15 Mar’13 – 82.13

On 14 Mar’13 Dollar Index made a high of 83.16 and finally ended 29 days (trading days) long rally (It seems that rally is ended). From 1st Feb’13 onward prices made a bottom of 78.19 and moving on continuing basis, in between easily taken off resistance of its major 200 DEMA. I am saying that this rally is ended because of last two days price action, which has given two big red candles confirming underlying weakness in prices, with that RSI (14) has also confirmed the fact by moving towards 50-line. And also as depicted in attached we can clearly see rising trend line breakout.

dollar index-way2profits

Dollar Index as on 15 Mar’13 – 82.13

It seems that prices moved in impulsive structure, so I expect prices to retrace prior move by at least 38.2% or higher, so initial target comes near 81.52 and next 81.00 from current level. Traders can keep stop loss of 82.61.

EUR/USD as on 15 Mar’13 – 1.3074

Similarly EUR/USD shows reversal signal after falling spree from high of 1.3703 by making a bottom of 1.2911 on 14 Mar’13.  FIBER stands close to its major 200-DEMA, and also prices broke out from falling trendline as depicted in attached chart.

EURUSD-way2profits

EUR/USD as on 15 Mar’13 – 1.3074

Traders can take long position above 1.3105 with stop loss of 1.3016. I expect initially prices to test at least 1.3225 and next 1.3300. Subsequently we can easily trail the stop loss and play the ride.

Finally,

USD/INR as on 15 Mar’13 – 54.02

I am starting with weekly chart. As it is clearly visible Head & Shoulder pattern. Few weeks ago one of my friend has drawn out attention on this pattern, with his analysis, but at that point in time I was not convinced to turn extremely bearish on Dollar, but as pattern is progressing I am becoming little skeptical.

usdinr-way2profits

USDINR Weekly Chart

Few weeks ago prices gave false breakdown and immediately reversed; but after that again prices struggling to go higher and that is the sign that is alerting me.

usdinr-way2profit

USDINR Daily Chart

From daily chart it is evident that prices moving in congestion, not giving clear clues. But I sense that prices will move lower, and will test support of major trendline as depicted in attached chart, and after that we have to take fresh call on USD/INR price movement.