Tag Archives: USD/INR Technical Analysis

USD/INR Technical Analysis for 27 May’13

USD/INR as on 24 May’13 – 55.8210

USD/INR as on 24 May’13 – 55.8210

From attached chart of USD/INR, some key observations;

  • In last couple of days USD/INR witnessed good momentum after breaking out from symmetrical triangle formation (not in its purest form).  With that prices also moved above its 200-day EMA. Most traders and analyst were waiting for this breakout, because prior to that prices remained in very narrow range.
  • Now, prices stand near to major swing high of 55.82 made on 26 Nov’12, after which prices remained on subdued note. Breaking out from this level will invite further attention in the pair.
  • Momentum oscillator RSI (14) is also moving higher on daily time frame, it almost reached closed to overbought territory. I think which is quite obvious after such quick rise.  Similarly, on weekly chart RSI reached near to 60-level.

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USD/INR Technical Analysis

USD/INR as on 23 Apr’13 – 54.39

              USD/INR as on 23 Apr’13 – 54.39

Since from beginning of March’13, pair of USD/INR is trading in a very narrow range of 55 to 54 Rupee, just 1 rupee move in lat one and half month. In such type of scenario it is very difficult to trade. In last week prices broke out from its long triangle formation (it does not qualify for native triangle pattern, but for name sake I am using it) and again prices moved back to test the apex of the triangle.

From Feb onwards prices are trading on support of its major 200-day EMA, but there is no follow up action till date, so gradually it loses its significance, as it happened in USD/CAD last year.

RSI (14) is hovering near 50 level, which is indicative of indecision among market players, where price action is bit choppy.

From above observation, I would advise my readers to stay away from this pair, as long as it is moving within this narrow range. We’ll take fresh view once prices move above this range.

 

Technical Analysis on USD/INR- 54.75

As you can see in attached USD/INR chart, prices are facing resistance near INR 55 level since from last few sessions.  This resistance comes from Golden Fibonacci ratio 61.8% of last move from all time high of INR 57.25 made on 22 July, 12 to low of INR 51.50 which was made on 5th Oct, 12. On the downside prices will witness immediate support from its 200 Day Simple Moving Average, which comes at INR 54.30.

USD/INR - 54.75

  USD/INR – 54.75

Prices moving gradually lower, so the momentum is also fading, it suggests some shorting opportunity.  At CMP INR 54.75 traders can take short position keeping stop loss above INR 55.10 with an initial target of INR 54.35

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